NEM Overview: Sunday 23 August 2026

NEM prices are diverging sharply this morning, with WA1 the outlier at $111.08/MWh against a mainland spread of $41-71/MWh. NSW1 leads the eastern states at $71.40/MWh on demand of 8,272 MW, QLD1 sits at $67.85/MWh (6,442 MW), while VIC1 is the cheapest mainland region at $41.22/MWh. SA1 ($50.57/MWh) and TAS1 ($49.15/MWh) sit mid-range. The VIC1-NSW1 interconnector is binding at 764.82 MW export to NSW, the flow supporting NSW1 demand while keeping downward pressure on VIC1 prices — worth watching if that constraint tightens further through the morning peak.

Generation mix reflects the overnight/early morning window: NSW1 and QLD1 remain black coal-dominated (4,882 MW and 4,728 MW respectively), with QLD1 wind also strong at 1,627 MW. VIC1 brown coal sits at 4,201 MW alongside 2,525 MW of wind — the largest wind contribution of any region right now. SA1 is running almost entirely on wind (1,358 MW) with negligible gas, delivering a renewable penetration of 96.97% and carbon intensity of just 0.0149 tCO2/MWh. TAS1 is at 100% renewable penetration on hydro (597 MW) and wind (352 MW). NSW1 (21.28%) and QLD1 (27.41%) show the lowest renewable shares, consistent with their coal-heavy overnight profiles. NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 48.4% on the platform score, with grid stress elevated at 87.9 — a signal to watch dispatch conditions closely as demand builds into the day.

SA1 remains under active AEMO intervention management: directions to AGL's Barker Inlet and Torrens Island units for voltage control were issued and subsequently cancelled through Saturday, with the non-conformance flag on the Numurkah solar farm (NUMURSF1) in VIC1 also worth noting for anyone with exposure there. TAS1 had two credible contingency reclassifications on the Tungatinah-Waddamana and Farrell-Reece lines due to lightning over the weekend, both since reverted to non-credible status — no residual constraint impact expected today. Cloud cover is heavy across VIC1, SA1 and TAS1 this morning (93-100%), capping solar potential near zero in the south, while NSW1 and QLD1 see clearer skies supporting moderate solar potential (25% and 17% respectively) as the day progresses. Wind output remains the primary renewable driver across the NEM through the morning.