NEM Overview: Friday 21 August 2026

Spot prices show a wide interregional spread this morning: WA1 leads at $102.56/MWh, NSW1 and QLD1 sit close together at $90/MWh and $89.73/MWh, while VIC1 trades at just $12.50/MWh — a roughly $90/MWh gap between VIC1 and WA1 (separate networks, not directly comparable, but indicative of the demand and generation contrast across the grid). SA1 ($49.46/MWh) and TAS1 ($41.37/MWh) sit in the middle. NSW1 carries the highest demand at 7,342 MW, followed by QLD1 at 5,946 MW and VIC1 at 5,053 MW, with SA1 and TAS1 well below at 1,300 MW and 1,021 MW respectively. VIC1's low price aligns with strong wind output (3,326 MW) against relatively mild demand, while NSW1 and QLD1's firmer prices reflect heavier reliance on black coal (4,358 MW and 5,255 MW respectively) alongside more modest wind and negligible solar at this hour.

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 44.1% on the latest scoring, with sharp regional divergence: TAS1 is running at 100% renewable (395.8 MW hydro, 489.3 MW wind), SA1 at 53.2% (wind 516.5 MW plus battery and gas), VIC1 at 52.5%, NSW1 at 28.3%, and QLD1 lagging the others at 9.75% given its coal-heavy mix and negligible wind/solar contribution overnight. Carbon intensity mirrors this spread — TAS1 at 0 tCO2/MWh, SA1 at 0.27 tCO2/MWh, VIC1 at 0.58 tCO2/MWh, NSW1 at 0.63 tCO2/MWh, and QLD1 highest at 0.79 tCO2/MWh. Solar generation is at zero across all regions currently, consistent with the overnight/early morning period, and today's outlook shows limited solar potential in NSW1 (29.5%), SA1 (8.6%) and VIC1 (1.8%) given cloud cover, with QLD1 solar potential also low at 0.2% due to 73% cloud cover forecast.

Grid stress reads 58.5 and market conditions 47.5, consistent with the elevated NSW1/QLD1/WA1 pricing and constrained interconnector flows. VIC1-NSW1 is exporting at its full 739 MW limit and is binding, as is V-S-MNSP1 (Murraylink) at 54 MW, while T-V-MNSP1 (Basslink) is importing 276 MW into TAS1 and also binding — worth watching given a live TAS1 credible contingency reclassification (Tungatinah-Lake Echo-Waddamana and Tungatinah-Waddamana 110kV lines, reclassified 05:23 AEST due to lightning, still active) that could tighten Basslink flow limits further if conditions escalate. NSW1 network constraints have eased, with the Vineyard-Sydney West 330kV line back in service as of 17:00 yesterday. No active AEMO market interventions are in force in the NEM at present, though the SA1 voltage direction from 18 August has since concluded — traders should monitor TAS1 lightning-related contingency notices through the morning for any impact on Basslink capacity or TAS1 pricing.