NEM Overview: Tuesday 25 August 2026
NEM-wide spot prices sit in a tight $99.77–$116.43/MWh band this morning, with SA1 the highest at $116.43/MWh and TAS1 the lowest at $99.77/MWh — a spread of just $16.66/MWh, indicating no significant regional stress or interconnector congestion at present. NSW1 ($110.96/MWh), VIC1 ($109.48/MWh), WA1 ($110.88/MWh) and QLD1 ($103.51/MWh) all cluster close together. Total scheduled demand is led by NSW1 at 8,196 MW, followed by QLD1 (6,499 MW) and VIC1 (6,037 MW), with SA1 (1,504 MW) and TAS1 (1,205 MW) much smaller. Interconnector flows are unremarkable: Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is exporting 345 MW into Victoria, Heywood (V-SA) is flowing 321 MW into SA, and NSW-QLD is exporting 490 MW northward — none of the six monitored interconnectors are binding.
Generation mix shows coal still dominant in the mainland's larger regions — black coal at 6,088 MW in NSW1 and 5,962 MW in QLD1, brown coal at 4,258 MW in VIC1 — alongside strong hydro contributions from TAS1 (1,182 MW) and NSW1 (714 MW). Wind output is solid in VIC1 (1,221 MW) and TAS1 (212 MW), while SA1 gas (OCGT 542 MW, CCGT 324 MW) is meeting the bulk of that region's demand overnight. Battery dispatch is active across NSW1 (363 MW), VIC1 (622 MW) and QLD1 (294 MW). NEM-wide renewable penetration reads 39.2% on the latest score, though regional carbon intensity and renewable share vary widely — TAS1 sits at 91.79% renewable with carbon intensity of 0.053 tCO2/MWh, VIC1 at 30.02% renewable (0.841 tCO2/MWh), SA1 at 26.76% (0.432 tCO2/MWh), NSW1 at 19.13% (0.707 tCO2/MWh), and QLD1 lowest at 11.15% renewable (0.779 tCO2/MWh). Grid stress score reads 79.7, on the elevated side, though current price and flow data don't show acute constraint.
Weather today offers limited solar support across the southern states — cloud cover sits at 98% in SA1, 95% in QLD1 and 86% in TAS1 this morning, with solar potential near zero NEM-wide currently and only modest recovery expected through midday (NSW1 and VIC1 forecast average solar potential of 11.4% and 15% respectively today). Wind potential is also subdued across the board (0.2–1.6 range currently), so expect thermal and hydro generation to continue carrying load through the morning peak. Heating demand is elevated in TAS1 (10.0), SA1 (10.0) and VIC1 (9.2) given cool temperatures (7–9°C), consistent with the moderate demand levels observed.
On notices: AEMO declared unit VP6 non-conforming in NSW1 for a 5-minute window at 05:45–05:50 AEST today (-21 MW), a minor dispatch deviation with no market-wide implication. Worth flagging for the week ahead — AEMO has issued a Minimum System Load advisory for SA1 on 30 August, forecasting demand could fall as low as 4 MW at 14:00 AEST, which will require close monitoring of minimum demand management ahead of that date. VIC1's Eildon-Mt Beauty 220kV lines have seen repeated credible/non-credible contingency reclassification this week due to lightning activity, currently reverted to non-credible as of last night — no impact on today's interconnector limits. No active market interventions or price reviews are in force at present.