NEM Overview: Wednesday 26 August 2026
NEM spot prices are elevated across the eastern seaboard this morning, with NSW1 leading at $299.99/MWh, QLD1 at $289.69/MWh, and VIC1 at $285.80/MWh. SA1 sits lower at $228.97/MWh and TAS1 at $258.64/MWh, while WA1 (not synchronously connected) trades at just $99.90/MWh. The spread between NSW1 and WA1 exceeds $200/MWh, though the more relevant comparison — the roughly $70/MWh gap between SA1 and NSW1 — points to tighter supply-demand balance in the eastern mainland regions this morning. NSW1 demand is the highest in the NEM at 8,353 MW, followed by QLD1 at 6,693 MW and VIC1 at 6,601 MW. The gridIQ grid stress score sits at 81.3, consistent with the firm pricing seen across NSW1, QLD1 and VIC1.
Generation mix reflects overcast, cool conditions across the southern states this morning: Victoria's solar output is at 0 MW under 13% cloud cover but negligible irradiance at this hour, and brown coal is supplying 4,365 MW (85%+ of VIC1 output). NSW1 is drawing heavily on black coal (6,275 MW) alongside 1,088 MW of hydro and 183 MW from batteries, with wind and solar contributing a modest 48 MW and 20 MW respectively under full cloud cover. QLD1's black coal fleet is running at 5,843 MW, with wind adding a solid 753 MW. SA1 stands out for its wind contribution of 413 MW against gas-fired generation of 872 MW combined (OCGT and CCGT). Tasmania remains hydro-dominated at 1,398 MW, delivering a renewable penetration of 91.8% and the lowest carbon intensity in the NEM at 0.053 tCO2/MWh.
NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 36.9% on the gridIQ score, with wide regional variation: TAS1 at 91.8%, SA1 at 32.3%, QLD1 at 18.5%, NSW1 at 17.6%, and VIC1 at just 5.2% given the solar drop-off and light wind. Carbon intensity is correspondingly highest in VIC1 at 1.11 tCO2/MWh. Today's weather outlook shows improving solar potential in NSW1 (8.3 average, rising through the week) and SA1 (20.8 today), which should support renewable output later in the session as cloud cover clears in parts of SA1 and QLD1.
On notices, traders should note the active MSL1 forecast for SA1 on 30 August, with operational demand forecast to dip as low as -62 MW between 11:30 and 15:30 AEST — a minimum system load condition worth watching for negative pricing risk later this week. Overnight lightning activity prompted temporary reclassification of contingency events on the Mudgeeraba-Terranora lines in QLD1 and Bayswater-Mt Piper lines in NSW1, both since cancelled with no lasting constraint impact. No active market interventions or directions are in place this morning, though SA1 saw voltage-related directions to Barker Inlet and Torrens Island earlier in the week, underscoring the region's reliance on synchronous plant for system strength during low-wind periods.