NEM Overview: Wednesday 2 September 2026

Spot prices show a wide east-west spread this morning: NSW1 sits at $65.50/MWh and QLD1 at $64.95/MWh, while VIC1 has collapsed to $10.50/MWh, SA1 to $9.83/MWh and TAS1 to $10.98/MWh. WA1 (non-NEM, SWIS) is trading well above the pack at $111.34/MWh. The NSW1-QLD1 spread against the southern states reflects a demand skew — NSW1 demand is running at 7,388 MW and QLD1 at 6,246 MW, versus VIC1 at 5,707 MW and SA1/TAS1 both under 1,400 MW — with VIC1-NSW1 flow binding at 758 MW export north, capping the ability for cheap Victorian generation to fully compress NSW1 prices.

Renewable penetration across the NEM sits at 51.3% on the current scoring, with sharp regional variation. TAS1 is running 100% renewable (523 MW wind, 153 MW hydro), SA1 sits at 97.1% (1,409 MW wind, negligible thermal), and VIC1 is at 57.66% renewable, underpinned by 3,591 MW of wind against 2,563 MW brown coal. NSW1 renewable share is lower at 32.35%, with 4,145 MW black coal against 1,744 MW wind, and QLD1 is the lowest at 20.79%, dominated by 4,836 MW black coal with 890 MW wind and 371 MW battery output supplementing. Carbon intensity mirrors this spread — SA1 at 0.014 tCO2/MWh and TAS1 at zero, against QLD1 at 0.694 tCO2/MWh and NSW1 at 0.594 tCO2/MWh.

Grid stress is elevated at 70.9 on the composite score, consistent with the binding constraints on T-V-MNSP1 (-349 MW, near its -365 MW import limit) and VIC1-NSW1 (758 MW, at its export limit). An unplanned outage at the Tungatina 110 kV substation in TAS1 triggered constraint set T-PMWA from 2140 hrs yesterday, and remains a factor for Basslink-adjacent flows today. SA1 has had a run of AEMO intervention events and voltage-related directions over the past week (Torrens Island, Barker Inlet, Dry Creek units), with the most recent SA intervention cancelled yesterday at 1345 hrs — worth watching given the region's low demand and high wind share continues to create voltage support challenges.

Weather-wise, NSW1 and QLD1 are set for clear skies and rising solar potential today (up to 35% in QLD1 by afternoon) with maximums near 25-29°C, while VIC1, SA1 and TAS1 remain cloudy and cool (max 11-17°C) with subdued solar output and only moderate wind potential (3-12%). Expect NSW1 and QLD1 price firmness to persist through the day on stronger demand and coal-heavy generation, while VIC1, SA1 and TAS1 stay soft on wind-driven supply and light load — barring further intervention activity in SA.