NEM Overview: Thursday 3 September 2026
NEM prices are elevated across the eastern seaboard this morning, with NSW1 leading at $293.79/MWh, VIC1 at $252.65/MWh and QLD1 at $246.61/MWh. TAS1 sits at $233.80/MWh, while SA1 and WA1 are running far cooler at $86.44/MWh and $84.84/MWh respectively — a spread of roughly $209/MWh between NSW1 and SA1. Total scheduled demand is highest in NSW1 (7,673 MW), followed by QLD1 (6,148 MW) and VIC1 (6,101 MW), consistent with cold morning conditions across the southern states (Melbourne 7.4°C, Hobart 8.0°C) driving heating demand. The VIC1-NSW1 interconnector is binding at 839 MW flow, and V-SA is also binding at -305 MW, indicating export constraints are shaping the current price divergence between the eastern regions and SA1.
Generation mix reflects the coal-heavy morning stack in the larger regions: NSW1 black coal is running at 5,221 MW alongside 778 MW hydro and 522 MW battery output, while QLD1 black coal sits at 5,699 MW with wind contributing 588 MW. VIC1 brown coal is at 3,531 MW with wind adding 1,138 MW. SA1 stands out with wind at 1,141 MW against just 523 MW combined gas (OCGT and CCGT), pushing its renewable penetration to 68.6% and carbon intensity down to 0.17 tCO2/MWh — the cleanest region on the grid this morning. TAS1 is running on 100% renewables (948 MW hydro, 440 MW wind), while NSW1 and QLD1 trail at 23.1% and 18.0% renewable share respectively. NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 51.4%, with the overall market conditions score at 42.8 and grid stress at 49.3, reflecting the tight NSW1/QLD1 pricing alongside constrained interconnector flows.
Traders should note SA1 has had a volatile week: AEMO issued and then cancelled a voltage-related intervention event and direction to Torrens Island B4 (cancelled 1410 hrs yesterday), and the VIC1-SA1 negative settlement residue constraint has been triggered and lifted twice in the past 24 hours, reflecting ongoing management of negative residues on that interconnector. TAS1 has seen a string of lightning-related contingency reclassifications on the Farrell-Reece, Gordon-Chapel St and Norwood-Scottsdale lines overnight, all since cancelled — no credible contingency events remain active in TAS1 as of this morning. A NSW1 non-conformance was recorded yesterday afternoon on WTAHB1 (47 MW, 16:40-16:50). Grid engineers should also note a planned AEMO Market Network maintenance window today from 10:00 to 17:00 AEST (outage window 10:00-14:00), which may briefly affect Lan-2-Lan VPN connectivity via the QLD datacentre termination point.