NEM Overview: Saturday 5 September 2026

NSW1 leads regional pricing at $75.41/MWh this morning, with QLD1 close behind at $72.50/MWh, while VIC1 trades at just $35.87/MWh — a $39.54/MWh spread across the two largest regions. SA1 sits at $60.09/MWh and TAS1 at $52.86/MWh. WA1 (separate market) is the highest at $84.35/MWh. Demand is moderate across the board for a Sunday morning: NSW1 at 6,263 MW, QLD1 at 5,265 MW, VIC1 at 4,736 MW, SA1 at 1,132 MW and TAS1 at 996 MW.

The VIC1-SA1 price gap is notable given the flows: Victoria is exporting 565 MW to SA1 via the Heywood/V-SA interconnector (binding at its export limit) and drawing power from Basslink out of Tasmania (348 MW import, binding). SA1's renewable penetration sits at 90.4% this morning, running almost entirely on wind (146 MW), battery (436 MW) and gas CCGT (61 MW), with negligible local thermal generation — explaining its reliance on imports to balance. TAS1 renewable penetration is 83.5%, dominated by hydro (554 MW). By contrast, QLD1 renewable penetration is only 11.9%, with black coal supplying 4,869 MW against 580 MW wind and just 31 MW solar given overcast, low-wind conditions early. NSW1 (32.0% renewable) and VIC1 (34.6% renewable) sit in between, with NSW1 wind strong at 1,471 MW and VIC1 wind at 1,515 MW, though both still carry substantial coal baseload (NSW1 black coal 3,993 MW, VIC1 brown coal 3,831 MW). NEM-wide renewable penetration reads 56.3% on the composite score, with grid stress at 58.9/100 and price stability at a soft 41.2/100, reflecting the wide interregional spread.

Weather today keeps solar contribution muted through the morning across the southern states — VIC1 cloud cover 57-62%, SA1 61%, TAS1 17% but low wind (0.1-0.8 potential) — while QLD1 stays clear with 33.7% solar potential and warming to a 31.8°C max, supportive of afternoon rooftop PV offsetting some black coal reliance. NSW1 should see reasonable solar uptake later (30.6% potential) under clearing skies.

SA1 remains under active AEMO scrutiny: a foreseeable intervention notice for voltage conditions is flagged from 1100 hrs today, following an overnight direction to AGL's Torrens Island units that ran through to 2200 hrs last night. Traders should watch for a fresh direction in SA1 through the late morning period. Elsewhere, transmission conditions are largely settled — VIC1, NSW1, TAS1 lightning-related contingency reclassifications from Friday have all been cancelled, and the Dapto-Kangaroo Valley 330kV line in NSW1 has returned to service ahead of its scheduled 1700 hrs completion. No active credible contingency reclassifications remain outstanding as of this morning.