NEM Overview: Sunday 6 September 2026

NEM spot prices show a wide regional spread this morning, ranging from $45.38/MWh in Victoria to $97.43/MWh in WA and $90.01/MWh in NSW. Queensland sits at $80.93/MWh, SA at $63.67/MWh, and Tasmania at $57.36/MWh. The near-$45/MWh gap between NSW and Victoria reflects strong Victorian wind output (2,142 MW) alongside brown coal baseload, while NSW carries higher demand (7,524 MW, the largest of any region) against thinner wind and solar contribution. The VIC1-NSW1 interconnector is binding at 710 MW flow, exporting Victorian generation into NSW and helping cap the price differential from widening further.

Renewable penetration nationally sits at 46.4% on gridIQ's tracking score, with sharp regional variation. Tasmania leads at 91.7% renewable (957 MW hydro, 414 MW wind) with carbon intensity of just 0.0539 tCO2/MWh. SA follows at 78.56% renewable (905 MW wind) and 0.1227 tCO2/MWh. Victoria sits at 43.11% renewable, while NSW and Queensland trail at 17.6% and 21.83% respectively, both leaning on black coal (5,400 MW and 5,107 MW) for the bulk of supply. Solar contribution is negligible across all regions at this hour, consistent with early morning conditions before sunrise ramp-up; NSW, VIC, SA, QLD and TAS all show near-zero current solar potential, with meaningful solar generation not expected until mid-morning.

Grid stress reads 61.2 on gridIQ's score, and price stability is soft at 29.7, consistent with the overnight volatility in SA. AEMO issued and then cancelled an intervention event in SA on 6 September (voltage-related, cancelled 1600 hrs), alongside a direction to Torrens Island B4 to synchronise and follow dispatch targets — a pattern of foreseeable voltage interventions has recurred over consecutive days in that region and is worth monitoring into today's session. Non-conformance was also declared for ADPBA1 (SA, 6 MW) and Crowlands Wind Farm (VIC, 22 MW) overnight, both since resolved. No active transmission constraints of note remain outside the standing VIC1-NSW1 and V-S-MNSP1 interconnector bindings.

Today's weather outlook points to limited solar resource nationally (NSW 27.9% avg potential, VIC just 3.7%, SA 5.1%, QLD 22.4%, TAS 10.7%), with cool temperatures across the southern states keeping heating demand elevated (TAS 9.9, SA 7.7, VIC 6.8). Wind potential is moderate-to-low across the board, suggesting today's generation mix will continue to lean on coal and hydro/gas for firming, with NSW price risk skewing higher given its lower renewable share and highest demand base.