NEM Overview: Thursday 10 September 2026
Spot prices sit in a tight $87-109/MWh band across the NEM this morning, with NSW leading at $109.10/MWh against 8,274 MW demand, VIC at $100.50/MWh, TAS at $92.99/MWh, SA at $89.85/MWh, QLD at $87.73/MWh and WA at $87.64/MWh. The $21/MWh spread between NSW and QLD is unremarkable for this time of year, but NSW's premium is notable given SA is running at 90.3% renewable penetration versus NSW's 30.8% — cheaper regional generation isn't yet fully arbitraged through the interconnectors this morning. Overall NEM renewable penetration reads 47.3%, with grid stress scoring 65.4 and market conditions at 40.8, indicating a moderately tight but not extreme operating environment.
Generation mix reflects the overnight/early-morning profile with cloud cover heavy across VIC, NSW and SA (all near or at 100% cloud) suppressing solar output. Black coal (5,280 MW) and hydro (915 MW) dominate NSW's supply stack alongside 835 MW of wind, while battery output of 513 MW is providing solid firming support. VIC leans on 4,144 MW of brown coal with 673 MW from batteries and 582 MW of wind. QLD's black coal fleet is running 5,019 MW with wind contributing 1,194 MW. SA is the standout for renewables, with 1,302 MW of wind covering the bulk of its 1,395 MW demand and carbon intensity sitting at just 0.057 tCO2/MWh, versus VIC's 0.935 tCO2/MWh — the widest carbon-intensity spread on the grid today. TAS is running 86.6% renewable, hydro-dominated at 1,189 MW with 208 MW of gas OCGT in the mix.
Interconnector flows show NSW-QLD binding at its import limit of -1,078 MW, meaning NSW is drawing the maximum allowable transfer from QLD, consistent with NSW's higher local price. VIC is exporting 382 MW into NSW and importing 391 MW from SA, reflecting SA's low-cost wind surplus flowing east. Watch the V-SA and NSW1-VIC1 negative settlement residue constraints that cycled on and off through yesterday's session (145110, 145115, 145116, 145117) — all now cancelled, but the pattern points to repeated negative residue accumulation on these paths during high wind-export periods, worth monitoring again today given SA's wind output.
On notices, SA's voltage-support intervention event from 8-9 September has been cancelled, but the underlying driver — insufficient synchronous generation for voltage control — could resurface again this afternoon if wind ramps further and thermal units like Torrens Island are backed off. NSW1's Bayswater-Mt Piper 500kV lines remain flagged for lightning-related contingency reclassification risk, and forecast conditions show minimal solar potential today across NSW, VIC and SA (5%, 18% and 33% respectively) due to cloud cover, with wind potential also subdued in VIC and TAS. Demand-side, no LOR conditions are currently active, but with today's low solar potential and cool temperatures (6-12°C across the southern states) driving heating load, keep an eye on evening peak pricing as rooftop PV drops away earlier than typical for this time of year.