NEM Overview: Wednesday 9 September 2026

NEM-wide prices are moderate this morning, spanning $77.54/MWh in WA to $119.02/MWh in NSW, with mainland eastern states clustered in the $95-120/MWh band. NSW leads at $119.02/MWh against demand of 8,418 MW, while VIC sits at $104.30/MWh, QLD at $102.74/MWh, TAS at $94.72/MWh and SA at $96.60/MWh. The NSW-VIC spread of roughly $15/MWh is consistent with the 722 MW of flow currently moving from VIC into NSW via the Vic1-NSW1 interconnector, which is well within its 1,007 MW export limit and not binding. SA demand remains the lowest of the mainland regions at 1,527 MW, typical for early morning conditions with cool, clear weather and minimal heating or cooling load.

Renewable penetration across the NEM sits at 49.4% on the latest read, with sharp regional divergence. SA is running at 97.4% renewable with carbon intensity of just 0.0128 tCO2/MWh, driven by 1,606 MW of wind generation against total demand of 1,527 MW — SA is a net exporter this morning, sending 276 MW into VIC. TAS follows at 89.7% renewable (0.0672 tCO2/MWh) on strong hydro output of 1,161 MW plus 204 MW of wind. By contrast, VIC, NSW and QLD sit in the 23-30% renewable range, with NSW's black coal fleet generating 5,396 MW, QLD's at 5,453 MW, and VIC's brown coal at 3,897 MW forming the bulk of dispatch in those regions. Wind is strong across the NEM this morning — NSW (1,069 MW), QLD (1,068 MW) and SA (1,606 MW) are all seeing solid output — while solar remains negligible pre-sunrise, with cloud cover heavy in NSW (89%) and QLD (100%).

SA remains under active AEMO market intervention for voltage support, with a direction issued to a generating participant on 9 September and a further foreseeable intervention flagged from 1000 hrs today, 10 September, again citing voltage as the driver. This follows a pattern of recurring SA voltage interventions through the past week, including directions to AGL's Torrens Island units to remain synchronised. Traders and grid engineers should watch for a fresh directive later this morning if market response is deemed insufficient by AEMO's 1700 hrs deadline yesterday. Grid stress score sits at 68.4, reflecting this ongoing SA voltage management alongside the broader system's reliance on interconnector flows to balance the high-renewable south with coal-heavy demand centres in the north and east.

Looking at today's outlook, SA's solar potential is forecast to build to 34.2% average later in the day under clear skies, which combined with strong wind should keep SA's renewable share elevated and may extend export flows toward VIC. NSW and VIC face cooler days (max 16.1°C and 14.2°C respectively) with moderate cloud cover limiting solar contribution until early afternoon. No credible contingency reclassifications are currently active following cancellation of the NSW and VIC lightning-related line reclassifications earlier in the week, and the VIC330kV Dederang-South Morang line has returned to service, removing that transfer constraint from the board.