NEM Overview: Friday 11 September 2026

NSW leads NEM pricing at $96.99/MWh this morning, with VIC close behind at $95.35/MWh, SA at $91.40/MWh, TAS at $89.75/MWh and QLD softest at $84.54/MWh — a $12.45/MWh spread across the mainland regions, consistent with early Saturday morning demand patterns and pre-dawn conditions across the grid. WA, on its separate SWIS network, sits at $70.94/MWh. NSW demand leads at 7,129 MW, followed by QLD at 5,609 MW and VIC at 5,270 MW, with SA and TAS demand comparatively modest at 1,268 MW and 1,112 MW respectively.

Renewable penetration nationally sits at 46.6% per gridIQ's composite score, but regional contributions vary sharply. SA is running at 96.16% renewables this interval (1,027 MW wind against just 41 MW gas-fired CCGT and negligible battery/solar output pre-dawn), and TAS sits at 89.72% (1,060 MW hydro plus 31 MW wind against 125 MW gas). NSW renewable share is 25.47% (759 MW wind, 615 MW hydro, 281 MW battery against 5,226 MW black coal), QLD sits at 23.47% (1,166 MW wind against 4,834 MW black coal), and VIC is lowest at 16.51%, with 3,835 MW brown coal dominant against 697 MW wind. Carbon intensity mirrors this spread: SA at 0.019 tCO2/MWh and TAS at 0.067 tCO2/MWh sit well below NSW (0.654), QLD (0.670) and VIC (1.005 tCO2/MWh).

Grid stress reads elevated at 80.1 on gridIQ's scale, and SA is the focal point. AEMO has an active intervention event running in SA for voltage control, with a direction to AGL's Torrens Island B4 unit to synchronise and follow dispatch from 0900 hrs today, expected to hold until 1630 hrs. This is a recurring pattern — directions on the same unit have been issued repeatedly over the past week — reflecting insufficient synchronous generation available in SA to manage voltage as wind output dominates the supply stack. Interconnector flows are unremarkable: Vic-NSW is flowing south at just -38 MW, Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is importing 196 MW into VIC from TAS, and V-SA is exporting 65 MW into SA. NSW-VIC negative settlement residue constraints have been triggering intermittently over recent sessions, a technical settlement matter rather than a security concern.

Looking ahead, NSW and SA both see solar potential build to around 30% by midday under mostly clear skies, while VIC stays cloudier (54% cover) with weaker solar and wind potential, likely keeping brown coal and gas dispatch elevated there through the day. Expect the SA voltage direction to remain in force until its 1630 hrs expiry, with possible renewal given the pattern of consecutive daily interventions this week.