Carbon Forecast: Thursday 10 September 2026

South Australia is running at just 0.057 tCO2/MWh this morning, with renewable penetration at 90.3% as wind generation of 1,302 MW dominates the region's supply. Tasmania sits at 0.087 tCO2/MWh with 86.6% renewables, underpinned by 1,189 MW of hydro output. At the other end, Victoria is the highest-intensity region at 0.935 tCO2/MWh with renewables down to 23.4%, as brown coal (4,144 MW) carries the bulk of load against modest wind (582 MW) and negligible solar (1.9 MW) at this hour. NSW (0.607 tCO2/MWh, 30.8% renewable) and Queensland (0.615 tCO2/MWh, 29.7% renewable) sit in between, both still leaning on black coal above 5,000 MW.

The trajectory over the past 24 hours shows a clear diurnal pattern repeating today: NSW, VIC and QLD intensity troughs occurred overnight between 00:00-04:30 AEST as wind generation firmed and demand eased, with NSW dropping as low as 0.392 tCO2/MWh and renewable share peaking near 55%. Intensity then climbed sharply through the morning ramp from 07:00 as solar hadn't yet reached full output and demand rose, peaking in VIC around 1.03-1.09 tCO2/MWh through the 16:00-19:30 window as evening demand built with limited renewable contribution. NSW and QLD followed a similar but less extreme pattern, peaking near 0.67-0.71 tCO2/MWh through the afternoon and early evening.

For carbon-sensitive loads today, SA and TAS remain consistently low-intensity throughout, rarely exceeding 0.2 tCO2/MWh even during their own peak periods, making them reliable green windows at almost any hour. In NSW, QLD and VIC, the lowest-intensity window is expected again overnight into the early hours, roughly 00:00-05:00 AEST, as wind generation typically strengthens and demand falls. Loads with flexibility to shift into this overnight window, or to draw from SA and TAS where interconnector capacity allows, will see materially lower emissions exposure than running through the late-afternoon and evening peak, particularly in Victoria where intensity is tracking above 0.9 tCO2/MWh into this evening.