Carbon Forecast: Tuesday 8 September 2026

South Australia sits at just 0.0203 tCO2/MWh this morning, the lowest intensity nationally, with renewable penetration at 95.85% as wind generation (1,714 MW) dominates the region's output alongside minimal gas (82 MW CCGT). Tasmania follows at 0.0709 tCO2/MWh with 89.09% renewables, underpinned by 595 MW of hydro and 420 MW of wind. At the other end, Queensland carries the highest intensity at 0.6599 tCO2/MWh with renewables at just 24.65%, as black coal (5,274 MW) covers the bulk of demand against 1,207 MW of wind. NSW sits at 0.6315 tCO2/MWh (28.03% renewable) with black coal at 4,608 MW still the largest single source, while Victoria reads 0.5892 tCO2/MWh with renewable share at 51.7%, split between 3,055 MW of wind and 2,982 MW of brown coal.

The trajectory across NSW, VIC, and QLD over the past 24 hours shows a clear diurnal pattern: intensity troughs in the early morning hours (00:00–06:00 AEST) as overnight demand drops and wind output holds up, then climbs sharply through the middle of the day as solar contribution in these regions remains comparatively thin and coal plant ramps to cover the afternoon peak. NSW peaked near 0.80 tCO2/MWh around 17:00 AEST yesterday before easing back into the evening, and a similar climb-and-fade pattern is likely again today. SA and TAS remain structurally low throughout the cycle, with SA's intensity actually falling further into the evening as wind strengthens, dropping from 0.29 tCO2/MWh mid-morning to under 0.03 tCO2/MWh by evening.

For carbon-sensitive load-shifting today, SA and TAS offer near-continuous green windows, with SA intensity unlikely to exceed 0.10 tCO2/MWh outside of low-wind periods. In NSW and QLD, the best windows fall overnight through early morning (00:00–05:00 AEST), when intensity in NSW dropped as low as 0.41 tCO2/MWh and QLD to around 0.47 tCO2/MWh in the prior cycle. Victoria's renewable share strengthens markedly from mid-afternoon into the evening as wind output builds, with intensity easing from the low 0.7s to around 0.59 tCO2/MWh by early evening — a favourable window for flexible load in that region. Traders and grid engineers scheduling discretionary or carbon-sensitive load in NSW and QLD should target the overnight trough and avoid the 11:00–18:00 AEST window, when coal-dominated generation pushes intensity toward its daily peak in both regions.