Carbon Forecast: Friday 4 September 2026

SA1 carries the lowest carbon intensity in the NEM this morning at 0.028 tCO2/MWh, with renewable penetration at 94.2% — wind alone is contributing 1,341 MW against negligible gas (0.11 MW OCGT). TAS1 follows at 0.122 tCO2/MWh with 81.2% renewables, split between 379 MW hydro and 163 MW wind, with a modest 125 MW of gas OCGT in the mix. At the other end, QLD1 sits at 0.773 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at just 11.6% — black coal is supplying 4,707 MW against 603 MW wind and negligible solar output at this hour. NSW1 (0.565 tCO2/MWh, 35.6% renewable) and VIC1 (0.562 tCO2/MWh, 54.0% renewable) sit in between, with NSW1 running 3,680 MW black coal against 1,586 MW wind, and VIC1 running 2,791 MW brown coal against 3,264 MW wind.

The overnight-to-early-morning window has already delivered the lowest intensity readings of the past 24 hours across most regions — NSW1 troughed near 0.307 tCO2/MWh around 12:30pm AEST yesterday, VIC1 dipped to 0.442 tCO2/MWh around 3pm AEST, and SA1 has been sitting below 0.02 tCO2/MWh for extended stretches overnight and into the early hours. QLD1's lowest point came at 11:30am AEST (0.436 tCO2/MWh, 50% renewable) before solar dropped away and coal ramped through the afternoon, pushing intensity above 0.78 tCO2/MWh by mid-afternoon and holding there into the evening. This pattern reflects QLD1's heavier reliance on rooftop and utility solar for renewable contribution — once the sun sets, black coal fills the gap quickly.

For the remainder of today, expect SA1 to stay in the 0.01-0.03 tCO2/MWh band as wind generation remains strong, making it the standout region for carbon-sensitive load-shifting at any hour. TAS1 will likely track between 0.10-0.15 tCO2/MWh through the evening as hydro dispatch adjusts to demand. NSW1 and VIC1 both show a repeating diurnal pattern — intensity troughs in the early morning hours (midnight-6am AEST) as wind peaks and demand is low, then climbs through the day as demand rises and solar/wind contribution eases, typically peaking in the early evening. QLD1's carbon-sensitive load management should target late morning (10am-midday AEST) when solar is at its peak; outside that window, intensity remains elevated near 0.77-0.78 tCO2/MWh with limited relief expected overnight given minimal wind contribution currently on the QLD1 system.