Carbon Forecast: Wednesday 2 September 2026

South Australia sits at 0.0143 tCO2/MWh right now with renewable penetration at 97.1%, wind alone contributing 1,399 MW against negligible gas output. Tasmania is at 0 tCO2/MWh on 100% renewables, hydro (268 MW) and wind (472 MW) covering the entire regional load. At the other end, Queensland is the highest-intensity region at 0.701 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration down at 19.95%, black coal generating 4,897 MW against just 847 MW of wind and 40 MW of solar. NSW sits mid-range at 0.5854 tCO2/MWh (33.3% renewable), with black coal at 4,426 MW dominating over 1,685 MW of wind. Victoria is at 0.543 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 54.7%, wind running strong at 3,604 MW alongside 2,920 MW of brown coal.

The generation mix driving these numbers reflects timing more than capacity: this reading is from the last overnight interval, where solar output across all mainland regions has dropped to zero, leaving wind and baseload thermal to carry demand. QLD's low renewable share reflects both weak wind output for the region and the size of its coal fleet relative to available renewables. SA and TAS remain structurally low-carbon regardless of time of day, given SA's wind fleet scale relative to demand and TAS's near-total hydro/wind base.

Through today, expect NSW, VIC and QLD intensity to rise further as the morning progresses and solar has yet to ramp — NSW's historical intraday pattern shows intensity climbing from around 0.33 tCO2/MWh overnight to above 0.6 tCO2/MWh by mid-morning as demand builds ahead of solar contribution, with a similar pattern in VIC and QLD. The lowest-intensity window for carbon-sensitive loads in NSW, VIC and QLD is likely to fall in the early-to-mid afternoon, when rooftop and grid-scale solar peak — VIC's data shows intensity nearly halving from ~0.75 tCO2/MWh late morning to ~0.54 tCO2/MWh by mid-afternoon as solar and wind combine. SA and TAS are expected to remain at or near their current ultra-low intensity levels throughout the day, making them the standing green windows for any load-shifting strategy, while NSW, VIC and QLD carbon-sensitive operations should target the 12:00–16:00 AEST window for the best combination of solar contribution and reduced coal dispatch.