Carbon Forecast: Tuesday 1 September 2026

Tasmania is running at 0 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable output this morning, entirely hydro and wind supported, and holds that position through the full dataset window. SA1 sits second-lowest at 0.22 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 64.9%, off its overnight peak above 97% but still comfortably wind-and-solar dominated. At the other end, VIC1 is the highest-intensity region at 0.83 tCO2/MWh with renewables at just 32.0%, driven by brown coal (4,050 MW) carrying the bulk of load against 1,101 MW of wind. QLD1 follows at 0.70 tCO2/MWh (19.9% renewable), with black coal (5,454 MW) dominant and solar negligible at this hour. NSW1 sits mid-pack at 0.63 tCO2/MWh (27.8% renewable), black coal at 4,924 MW against 1,407 MW of wind.

The overnight-to-morning trajectory across NSW1, VIC1, QLD1 and SA1 shows a consistent pattern: intensity troughs in the pre-dawn hours (roughly 0400-0600 AEST) as wind generation peaks and demand is low, then climbs sharply from 0700 as morning demand ramps and solar hasn't yet reached output, before an afternoon solar-driven dip and a second rise into the evening peak. NSW1 hit its daily low of 0.28 tCO2/MWh at 0400 AEST with renewables at 68%, then intensity rose to a 0.66 tCO2/MWh peak around midday. VIC1's trajectory is different today: instead of a clean afternoon low, intensity has been climbing steadily since 1330 AEST, reaching 0.91 tCO2/MWh at 1800 AEST as brown coal output firmed and renewable share fell to around 25-30%, only easing slightly into the current 20:30 reading.

For carbon-sensitive loads, the cleanest windows sit in the early morning hours before sunrise, when NSW1, QLD1 and SA1 all show intensity troughs coinciding with strong overnight wind output — NSW1 and SA1 both bottomed out between 0400 and 0600 AEST. Tasmania remains a standing zero-carbon window at all hours given its hydro base. Looking to the rest of today, expect VIC1 and QLD1 to stay elevated (0.70-0.85 tCO2/MWh range) through the evening peak as coal generation holds firm and wind/solar contribution tapers, with the next material improvement likely overnight into tomorrow's pre-dawn trough. SA1 remains the most reliably low-carbon mainland option through daylight hours given its wind and rooftop solar-heavy mix, even with today's midday intensity higher than the overnight low.