Carbon Forecast: Friday 28 August 2026

Tasmania holds the lowest carbon intensity in the NEM at 0.0534 tCO2/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, running at 91.78% renewable penetration on the back of 1,032 MW hydro and 364 MW wind against just 125 MW gas OCGT. Victoria sits at the opposite end with intensity at 1.0088 tCO2/MWh and renewable penetration of only 17.24%, with 4,340 MW of brown coal dominating the mix alongside 517 MW wind and 338 MW battery output. South Australia is the second-cleanest region at 0.3058 tCO2/MWh (46.96% renewable), supported by 339 MW wind and 113 MW battery discharge, though gas (OCGT plus CCGT) still contributes over 510 MW. NSW (0.70 tCO2/MWh, 20.26% renewable) and Queensland (0.7318 tCO2/MWh, 16.46% renewable) sit in between, both still leaning on black coal fleets in excess of 5,400 MW each.

Today's intensity trajectory across the mainland regions has followed a textbook solar-driven curve: NSW, VIC, and QLD all bottomed out overnight and in the early morning window (00:00-05:30 AEST), with NSW troughing near 0.378 tCO2/MWh at 03:30 and SA diving as low as 0.13 tCO2/MWh between 00:00 and 02:30 as wind generation peaked. Intensity then climbed sharply through the morning ramp as demand built and solar hadn't yet offset overnight wind drop-off, peaking in NSW, VIC, and QLD through the early afternoon (roughly 12:00-17:00 AEST), with VIC touching 1.088 tCO2/MWh at 16:00 and QLD peaking near 0.784 tCO2/MWh at 15:00. SA's pattern diverges, showing a secondary dip in the late afternoon (16:30-18:00) as wind picked up again, dropping to 0.28 tCO2/MWh.

Through the remainder of today, expect NSW, VIC, and QLD intensity to ease gradually from current early-evening levels as demand tapers into the evening, with the next low-carbon window developing overnight from roughly 22:00 AEST through to 05:00 tomorrow as wind generation typically strengthens and demand troughs — mirroring last night's pattern where NSW fell from 0.65 to below 0.40 tCO2/MWh and SA dropped under 0.15 tCO2/MWh. Tasmania remains a consistently low-carbon region throughout the day regardless of time, holding between 0.048 and 0.12 tCO2/MWh on stable hydro-wind output. For carbon-sensitive load-shifting on the mainland, the 00:00-05:00 AEST window offers the best combination of low intensity and high renewable share across NSW, SA, and QLD simultaneously — SA in particular is worth monitoring for a possible sub-0.15 tCO2/MWh window if wind output repeats overnight patterns.