Carbon Forecast: Monday 24 August 2026

South Australia is running at just 0.013 tCO2/MWh this morning, with renewables at 97.4% as 1,620 MW of wind covers almost all regional demand — effectively the cleanest grid in the NEM right now. Tasmania sits close behind at 0.054 tCO2/MWh and 91.8% renewables, hydro-dominated at 1,370 MW with a modest wind and gas contribution. At the other end, Victoria is the highest-intensity region at 1.096 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration down to just 7.1%, as brown coal (4,307 MW) carries the vast majority of load with wind output subdued at 334 MW and no solar or battery contribution recorded in the latest interval. NSW (0.599 tCO2/MWh, 31.8% renewable) and Queensland (0.661 tCO2/MWh, 24.5% renewable) sit in the middle, both leaning on black coal (5,445 MW and 5,462 MW respectively) alongside solid wind output.

The generation mix explains the spread directly: SA and Tasmania have no coal in the stack, so intensity tracks wind and hydro availability almost one-for-one. NSW and Queensland blend black coal baseload with wind (1,596 MW and 1,581 MW respectively), which keeps their intensity mid-range and sensitive to wind strength through the day. Victoria's low renewable share reflects both weak wind generation and zero rooftop/utility solar showing in this evening interval — its trajectory over the past 24 hours shows intensity climbing steadily from around 0.74 tCO2/MWh overnight to above 1.1 tCO2/MWh through the evening peak, consistent with wind dropping off as brown coal output stayed flat.

Looking at the pattern from the past day as a guide to today's likely shape: NSW and Queensland typically see their lowest intensity in the overnight-to-early-morning window (00:00–05:00 AEST), when NSW dropped as low as 0.37 tCO2/MWh with renewables near 58%, before rising through the morning as demand ramps and wind eases, peaking around midday-to-afternoon near 0.65 tCO2/MWh. SA and Tasmania hold consistently low intensity across almost the entire day whenever wind stays strong, making them reliable green windows for carbon-sensitive load shifting at any hour today, though SA showed brief spikes into the 0.10–0.16 tCO2/MWh range mid-morning when wind eased — worth monitoring if replicated today. Victoria's best window, based on this pattern, is likely to fall overnight before 03:00 AEST, before intensity climbs sharply through the morning and holds high into the evening peak.