Carbon Forecast: Friday 21 August 2026

Tasmania is running at 0.00 tCO2/MWh this morning with renewable penetration at 100%, generation split between hydro (395 MW) and wind (523 MW) with no thermal plant on the system. South Australia sits second-lowest at 0.186 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 67.8%, wind contributing 452 MW and batteries dispatching 154 MW to firm the mix. Queensland carries the highest intensity at 0.784 tCO2/MWh with renewable share down at 10.5%, black coal covering 5,328 MW against wind at just 322 MW. NSW (0.673 tCO2/MWh, 23.3% renewable) and Victoria (0.622 tCO2/MWh, 49.0% renewable) sit in between, with Victoria's brown coal fleet (3,316 MW) offset by strong wind output of 3,048 MW.

The mix reflects overnight and early-morning conditions: wind generation is elevated across the southern regions (VIC, SA, TAS), pushing intensity down, while Queensland's solar has dropped to near zero (3 MW) ahead of sunrise, leaving black coal to carry the bulk of load and intensity elevated as a result. NSW shows a similar pattern, with solar at only 40 MW overnight and coal (5,056 MW) dominating generation.

Through the day, expect NSW and QLD intensity to rise further into the mid-morning peak as demand builds and solar ramps only gradually, based on the trailing 24-hour pattern where both regions peaked near 0.72-0.76 tCO2/MWh around 13:00-14:00 AEST before solar penetration took hold. VIC and SA typically see intensity fall through midday and into the afternoon as rooftop and utility solar ramp, with SA capable of dropping into the 0.15-0.20 tCO2/MWh range and VIC into the high 0.50s to low 0.60s by early afternoon based on yesterday's trajectory. Tasmania is expected to hold at or near zero throughout the day given its hydro-wind base covers total regional demand.

For carbon-sensitive loads, the best NEM-wide window is likely to open early afternoon (roughly 12:00-15:00 AEST) as solar peaks in VIC and SA, compounding with Tasmania's persistent zero-intensity supply. SA is the standout region for load-shifting today given its renewable trajectory, while QLD remains the highest-intensity region across all hours and is the least favourable for flexible load until solar output builds through the morning.