Carbon Forecast: Thursday 20 August 2026

Tasmania is running at 0.00 tCO2/MWh this morning, fully covered by hydro (1,186 MW) and wind (302 MW), with renewable penetration sitting at 100%. South Australia follows at 0.324 tCO2/MWh with 44.6% renewables, though wind output has eased to 345 MW alongside gas OCGT (360 MW) and CCGT (243 MW) picking up the balance. At the other end, Victoria carries the highest intensity at 0.819 tCO2/MWh with brown coal generating 4,443 MW against 1,942 MW of wind, holding renewable share to 32.2%. NSW sits at 0.665 tCO2/MWh (24.3% renewables) with black coal contributing 5,632 MW versus 919 MW wind, and Queensland is close behind at 0.676 tCO2/MWh (22.8% renewables), black coal-dominated at 5,458 MW against 1,196 MW wind.

The overnight-to-early-morning pattern from the past 24 hours shows a clear cycle repeating today: intensity troughs form between 02:00-05:30 AEST as overnight wind generation peaks and demand is low, then climbs sharply through the morning ramp as load builds and solar hasn't yet offset the shift away from wind. SA's data illustrates this starkly — intensity dropped as low as 0.038-0.045 tCO2/MWh between 02:30 and 05:00 AEST on renewable penetration above 90%, before climbing back above 0.25 tCO2/MWh by mid-morning. NSW and QLD show the same shape, bottoming near 0.44-0.49 tCO2/MWh in the pre-dawn window before rising to 0.60-0.73 tCO2/MWh through the midday-to-afternoon period as coal generation fills the gap left by fading wind output.

For the rest of today, expect intensity to stay elevated across NSW, VIC and QLD through the afternoon and early evening, broadly in the 0.65-0.79 tCO2/MWh range, with VIC likely to track the highest given its brown coal baseload. SA will remain the most variable mainland region, swinging with wind output but generally holding below 0.30 tCO2/MWh outside of low-wind troughs. Tasmania will stay at or near zero right through the day on its hydro-wind mix. The next low-carbon window for carbon-sensitive load-shifting is expected overnight into tomorrow morning, from approximately 01:00-05:30 AEST, when wind resources historically strengthen and demand drops — SA and TAS will offer the deepest green windows, with NSW and QLD following a similar but shallower dip in that same period.