Carbon Forecast: Thursday 27 August 2026

Tasmania holds the lowest carbon intensity in the NEM this morning at 0.052 tCO2/MWh, with renewable penetration at 92% as hydro (1,172 MW) and wind (262 MW) dominate the generation stack. South Australia sits second-lowest at 0.424 tCO2/MWh with 27% renewables, while NSW (0.695 tCO2/MWh, 21% renewable), Queensland (0.724 tCO2/MWh, 17% renewable) and Victoria (0.832 tCO2/MWh, 29% renewable) carry higher intensities as black and brown coal continue to underpin baseload across the eastern states.

The current mix reflects the early-morning ramp: NSW is running 5,974 MW of black coal against just 221 MW wind and 4 MW solar, keeping intensity elevated ahead of the solar contribution building later in the morning. Victoria's 4,375 MW of brown coal is only partially offset by 1,377 MW of wind, while Queensland's 5,899 MW black coal fleet dwarfs its 542 MW wind and negligible 18 MW solar output at this hour. South Australia's lower intensity comes from a gas-heavy but coal-free stack (378 MW OCGT, 302 MW CCGT) supplemented by 178 MW wind, avoiding the higher emissions factor of coal generation entirely.

Looking at the trajectory through today, yesterday's pattern is instructive for what to expect: SA's intensity fell as low as 0.065-0.072 tCO2/MWh overnight when wind and solar combined pushed renewable penetration above 85%, and NSW troughed near 0.412-0.442 tCO2/MWh in the 3:30-5:00am window with renewables above 52%. Expect SA and NSW to again show their lowest intensity in the overnight-to-dawn period as wind generation peaks and demand is low, with SA's renewable share potentially exceeding 80% again. Tasmania remains consistently low throughout the day regardless of time, given its hydro-dominant base.

For carbon-sensitive loads today, the priority window is the overnight-to-early-morning period (roughly midnight to 5:00am AEST) when SA and NSW intensity troughs align, alongside Tasmania which stays low around the clock. Avoid scheduling flexible load in the late afternoon to evening peak (4:00pm-8:00pm AEST), where yesterday's data shows NSW climbed to 0.76-0.77 tCO2/MWh and Queensland to 0.77-0.78 tCO2/MWh as solar output faded and coal/gas plant picked up the evening demand ramp — that pattern is likely to repeat today given similar seasonal solar availability.