Carbon Forecast: Wednesday 26 August 2026

Tasmania is running at 0.0498 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 92.33%, the lowest carbon intensity in the NEM this morning, underpinned by 1,478 MW of hydro output against just 124 MW of gas. Victoria sits at the opposite end at 0.9411 tCO2/MWh with renewables at only 19.17%, as brown coal (4,383 MW) dominates the mix alongside 951 MW of battery dispatch and 475 MW of gas peaking. SA is mid-pack at 0.391 tCO2/MWh with 32.52% renewables, wind contributing 460 MW against a heavy gas base of 1,070 MW combined OCGT and CCGT. NSW (0.703 tCO2/MWh, 19.68% renewable) and QLD (0.716 tCO2/MWh, 18.29% renewable) are both leaning on black coal — 6,400 MW and 5,689 MW respectively — with wind and solar contributing modestly at this hour.

The data shows a clear diurnal pattern repeating from yesterday: NSW and QLD intensity troughs occurred overnight between 00:30 and 05:30 AEST, dropping to 0.48-0.50 tCO2/MWh in NSW and 0.45-0.49 tCO2/MWh in QLD as renewable share climbed above 40%. Victoria's lowest readings also cluster in the same overnight window (0.777-0.815 tCO2/MWh with renewables near 33-35%), though VIC never gets close to the low-intensity range seen in other regions because of its structural brown coal base. SA's cleanest window was distinctly different, peaking near 60-62% renewable penetration and 0.185-0.195 tCO2/MWh between 01:30 and 02:30 AEST, driven by strong overnight wind.

Through the rest of today, expect NSW, VIC and QLD intensity to climb further into the afternoon as solar output fades and evening demand ramps, mirroring yesterday's trajectory where VIC peaked above 1.13 tCO2/MWh between 15:00 and 18:00 AEST and NSW/QLD peaked near 0.73-0.76 tCO2/MWh in the same window. SA typically holds a moderate band through the day (0.40-0.47 tCO2/MWh) with a modest afternoon lift as wind eases. Tasmania remains structurally low all day regardless of time, holding between 0.05 and 0.13 tCO2/MWh on hydro dominance.

For carbon-sensitive load-shifting today, Tasmania offers a consistent low-intensity window with no material trough required — it's low around the clock. For the other mainland regions, the best opportunity is overnight into the early hours of Friday (00:00-05:00 AEST), when NSW, QLD and SA all show their lowest intensity readings driven by wind generation and reduced demand. Avoid scheduling flexible load in NSW, VIC or QLD between roughly 13:00 and 19:00 AEST today, when coal-dominant regions historically show intensity peaks of 0.73-1.13 tCO2/MWh as solar tapers ahead of the evening peak.