Carbon Forecast: Saturday 29 August 2026

South Australia and Tasmania are running the lowest carbon intensity in the NEM this morning, at 0.079 tCO2/MWh and 0.054 tCO2/MWh respectively, with renewable penetration of 84% and 92%. SA's mix is dominated by 576 MW of wind plus 56 MW of battery discharge, with gas CCGT contributing just 121 MW as a balancing source. Tasmania is running almost entirely on 1,163 MW of hydro supplemented by 231 MW of wind, with only 125 MW of gas OCGT online. At the other end, Victoria is the highest-intensity region at 1.037 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration down at 15%, as 4,385 MW of brown coal continues to underpin the region overnight against 628 MW of wind. NSW sits at 0.754 tCO2/MWh (14% renewables) with 5,253 MW of black coal dominant, and Queensland is mid-pack at 0.644 tCO2/MWh (26% renewables), supported by 1,591 MW of wind against 5,059 MW of black coal.

Overnight data through to 06:00-08:00 AEST show all mainland regions tracking their lowest intensity of the cycle, with NSW dipping to 0.41 tCO2/MWh and SA briefly touching 0.048 tCO2/MWh around 12:00-13:30 AEST yesterday as overnight wind output peaked. That pattern is set to repeat: SA's intensity troughs align with strong overnight wind generation, while solar has minimal influence on today's mix here given the reporting window covers early morning and evening hours. As the day progresses through the 09:00-17:00 AEST window, expect NSW, VIC and QLD intensity to climb as coal and gas maintain higher dispatch shares relative to variable wind output, mirroring the trajectory seen yesterday afternoon where NSW peaked near 0.78 tCO2/MWh and VIC approached 1.04 tCO2/MWh into the evening.

For carbon-sensitive loads, SA and TAS remain the standout low-intensity regions all day, consistently under 0.15 tCO2/MWh whenever wind output holds above 500 MW in SA or hydro dispatch stays firm in TAS. On the mainland grid overall, the best green window for shifting load sits in the early morning hours (00:00-06:00 AEST) when NSW, VIC and QLD each show their lowest intensity of the 24-hour cycle, driven by reduced demand and steadier wind contribution. Intensity across NSW, VIC and QLD is expected to peak during the evening ramp (17:00-21:00 AEST) as solar drops away and coal/gas cover the demand peak — this is the window to avoid for flexible, carbon-sensitive operations today.