Carbon Forecast: Sunday 30 August 2026

Carbon intensity across the NEM this morning splits sharply along regional generation mix lines. Tasmania sits lowest at 0.055 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 91.6%, running almost entirely on hydro (1,130 MW) supplemented by wind (224 MW). South Australia follows at 0.175 tCO2/MWh with 70.6% renewables, driven by strong wind output (790 MW) offsetting gas generation (OCGT 265 MW, CCGT 137 MW). At the other end, Victoria is currently highest at 0.978 tCO2/MWh with renewables at just 16.5%, reflecting brown coal generation of 4,290 MW against modest wind (190 MW) and negligible rooftop solar contribution overnight. NSW (0.647 tCO2/MWh, 26.4% renewable) and Queensland (0.643 tCO2/MWh, 26.5% renewable) sit in the middle, both still leaning on black coal (5,719 MW and 5,278 MW respectively) with wind and battery storage providing secondary support.

The trajectory through today follows the standard solar-driven curve. Overnight and early morning intensity was generally lower across NSW, VIC and QLD as wind carried a larger mix share; NSW hit 0.376 tCO2/MWh near 1:30pm AEST (11:00 UTC) with renewables at 57%, and SA registered a low of 0.035 tCO2/MWh at 92.9% renewable around 9am AEST. As solar generation dropped away through the afternoon and evening peak approached, intensity climbed across all mainland regions — VIC peaked near 1.14 tCO2/MWh around 5-6pm AEST as coal and gas plant picked up the load, with NSW and QLD following similar but less pronounced patterns.

For the remainder of today, expect intensity to ease again through the evening as demand tapers, with NSW and QLD trending back down from current levels of 0.647 and 0.643 tCO2/MWh. SA and TAS remain the standout low-carbon windows all day, consistently below 0.2 tCO2/MWh, and are the preferred regions for carbon-sensitive load-shifting right now. Watch for the next SA low-intensity window as wind output builds overnight — historically this delivers sub-0.05 tCO2/MWh readings. VIC is likely to stay the highest-intensity region through the remainder of the day given its heavy brown coal base and limited solar contribution at this time of year.