Carbon Forecast: Monday 7 September 2026

South Australia holds the lowest carbon intensity in the NEM this morning at 0.067 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 87.9%, driven by 1,228 MW of wind generation against just 86 MW of gas OCGT and 126 MW of gas CCGT online. Tasmania sits close behind at 0.088 tCO2/MWh with hydro contributing 1,146 MW (86.5% renewable share). Victoria carries the highest intensity at 0.877 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration down at 21.6%, reflecting 3,565 MW of brown coal generation alongside 767 MW of gas OCGT and comparatively thin wind output of 214 MW. Queensland follows at 0.716 tCO2/MWh (18.3% renewable) with 5,362 MW of black coal dominating the mix, while NSW sits mid-range at 0.590 tCO2/MWh (32.8% renewable), supported by 1,174 MW of wind and 862 MW of hydro against 5,275 MW of black coal.

The overnight-to-morning pattern across NSW, VIC and QLD shows intensity troughs typically forming in the early hours (00:00–05:00 AEST) when wind output peaks and demand is lower, with NSW dropping as low as 0.318 tCO2/MWh and VIC to 0.481 tCO2/MWh in that window yesterday. Intensity then climbs sharply through the morning ramp as solar has not yet reached full output and coal/gas cover rising demand, peaking in NSW, VIC and QLD through the early evening (17:00–19:30 AEST) — VIC touched 1.012 tCO2/MWh and QLD 0.787 tCO2/MWh in that band, coinciding with the evening peak and minimal solar contribution. SA and TAS follow a different curve, holding renewable penetration above 85% for most of the day and only showing brief intensity lifts around 07:00–09:00 AEST when SA's wind output softens and gas fills the gap (SA peaked near 0.349 tCO2/MWh mid-morning before recovering).

For carbon-sensitive loads today, SA and TAS remain the lowest-intensity regions almost continuously and require no specific timing strategy. In NSW, VIC and QLD, the best green windows fall overnight through to pre-dawn (00:00–05:00 AEST), with a secondary smaller window possible around midday if wind picks up. Flexible load or charging activity should be steered away from the 16:00–20:00 AEST band in VIC and QLD, where intensity consistently peaks as coal and gas carry the evening demand ramp with minimal renewable offset.