Carbon Forecast: Sunday 6 September 2026

Tasmania holds the lowest carbon intensity on the NEM this morning at 0.054 tCO2/MWh, with renewables at 91.7% as hydro (958 MW) and wind (414 MW) cover almost all demand. South Australia sits second-lowest at 0.123 tCO2/MWh with 78.6% renewable penetration, driven by 905 MW of wind generation against modest gas output (253 MW combined OCGT/CCGT). At the other end, NSW is currently the highest-intensity region at 0.724 tCO2/MWh with renewables down to 17.6%, as black coal (5,400 MW) dominates the mix overnight with wind and solar contributing relatively little. Queensland and Victoria sit in between at 0.685 and 0.694 tCO2/MWh respectively, though Victoria's renewable share (43.1%) is more than double Queensland's (21.8%) thanks to strong overnight wind output (2,142 MW) offsetting brown coal baseload (3,288 MW).

The data shows all mainland regions tracking through their overnight low-solar period, which explains the elevated intensity readings in NSW and QLD — both were sitting near 0.6-0.65 tCO2/MWh through the evening peak yesterday and remain elevated into this morning's read. As solar ramps up through the morning, expect NSW and QLD intensity to fall through late morning before rising again into the early afternoon as historical patterns show solar penetration peaking around midday, then intensity climbing sharply through the evening ramp (17:00-19:00 AEST) as solar drops away and coal/gas fill the gap. Yesterday's NSW trace illustrates this clearly: intensity bottomed near 0.295 tCO2/MWh around 09:30 AEST (66% renewables) before climbing to 0.80 tCO2/MWh by 18:00 AEST as solar output collapsed.

For carbon-sensitive load-shifting today, the lowest-intensity windows nationally will fall in the early hours through mid-morning (00:00-10:00 AEST) for SA and TAS, where renewables consistently exceed 75-90%. NSW and QLD's best windows are likely mid-morning to early afternoon as solar ramps, but given yesterday's pattern of intensity rising again sharply after midday in NSW (reaching 0.77 tCO2/MWh by mid-afternoon), the window is narrower than in SA. Victoria's renewable share is trending upward into this morning (43% and rising from a 15% low around 11:00 AEST yesterday), suggesting overnight wind strength is currently the key driver rather than solar. Traders and load managers targeting minimum-emissions dispatch should prioritise SA and TAS around midday, and treat NSW/QLD's morning solar ramp as the primary opportunity before intensity climbs into the afternoon and evening peak.