Carbon Forecast: Wednesday 9 September 2026

South Australia is running at 0.0128 tCO2/MWh this morning with renewable penetration at 97.4%, driven by 1,606 MW of wind output meeting almost all regional demand, with gas contributing only marginal support (43 MW CCGT, 0.1 MW OCGT). Tasmania sits second-lowest at 0.0672 tCO2/MWh on 89.7% renewables, with hydro generating 1,161 MW alongside 204 MW of wind and a small gas contribution. At the other end, Victoria carries the highest intensity at 0.894 tCO2/MWh with renewables at just 23.5%, as brown coal (3,897 MW) dominates the mix alongside 994 MW of wind and 392 MW of gas peaking capacity. Queensland (0.6694 tCO2/MWh, 23.6% renewable) and NSW (0.6151 tCO2/MWh, 30.0% renewable) sit in between, both anchored by large black coal fleets (5,453 MW and 5,396 MW respectively) with wind contributing over 1,000 MW in each region.

The trajectory across mainland regions has followed a typical demand-driven pattern: NSW, VIC and QLD all show intensity troughs in the early hours (00:00–03:00 AEST) as overnight demand eases and wind generation dominates, before rising sharply through the morning as demand ramps and rooftop solar in NSW and QLD hasn't yet offset the loss of overnight wind conditions. VIC's intensity climbed steeply from 0.58 tCO2/MWh at midnight to a peak near 0.99 tCO2/MWh in late afternoon (around 16:30–17:00 AEST) as brown coal output firmed against falling renewable share, a pattern likely to persist today given similar demand and wind conditions. NSW and QLD show a comparable but less pronounced climb, peaking in the 0.65-0.73 tCO2/MWh range through midday into early evening.

SA and TAS remain consistently low throughout the entire 24-hour window, with SA intensity never exceeding 0.056 tCO2/MWh even during its brief morning dip in renewable share, making both regions reliable low-carbon options at any time today. For carbon-sensitive loads in the mainland interconnected regions, the lowest-intensity window is likely to fall between 00:00 and 03:00 AEST tonight, mirroring the pattern seen in the prior 24 hours where NSW dropped to 0.34-0.36 tCO2/MWh and VIC to around 0.52-0.54 tCO2/MWh on strong overnight wind. Loads with SA or TAS access should treat those regions as continuously available green windows rather than waiting for an overnight dip.