Regional Outlook — SA1: Saturday 29 August 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $86.44/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 1,278 MW. This follows a volatile 24 hours that saw prices swing from a peak of $130/MWh (predispatch estimate for 08:00 AEST) down through negative territory overnight, bottoming near -$31.81/MWh around 15:05 AEST yesterday as wind generation and low demand pushed the market negative for an extended stretch. The current price reflects the early-morning demand ramp as the region moves off overnight minimums.
Generation mix right now is wind-dominated at 575.8 MW, comfortably the largest source, with gas CCGT contributing 120.5 MW, battery discharge at 56.2 MW, and gas OCGT negligible at 0.11 MW. Solar output is zero given the pre-dawn timing and today's cloud cover, which the weather outlook pegs at 92% currently, easing to around 28% average through the day. Renewable penetration sits at 83.97%, pushing carbon intensity down to 0.0786 tCO2/MWh — well below the region's typical daytime range of 0.15–0.25 tCO2/MWh seen yesterday afternoon during lower wind periods.
Predispatch forecasts show prices holding in the $70-130/MWh band through the morning, spiking to a forecast $130/MWh at 08:00 AEST before easing. Overnight tonight, prices are forecast to fall sharply into negative territory from 00:00 AEST, with troughs near -$7.63/MWh around 03:00-03:30 AEST as wind generation continues and demand drops to seasonal lows. Prices recover into the morning ramp on 31 August, with predispatch showing a climb to $114/MWh by 10:00 AEST as demand rebuilds. Load-shifting windows between 02:00 and 07:00 AEST tonight offer savings of $132-138/MWh versus peak pricing, all flagged low-risk with near-zero carbon intensity.
Market notices remain active for SA: AEMO issued a direction to AGL SA Generation's Torrens Island B4 unit at 20:45 AEST yesterday to synchronise and follow dispatch targets from 09:00 AEST today, addressing a voltage control shortfall from insufficient synchronous generation online. A related foreseeable intervention notice for voltage support was issued ahead of this, expected to run until 13:00 AEST today. Separately, a Minimum System Load (MSL1) forecast notice flags demand risk between 11:30 and 15:30 AEST today, with minimum demand forecast as low as -62 MW at 14:00 AEST — consistent with the historical pattern of negative operational demand in SA during high-renewable, low-load midday periods. Traders should watch for further directions if synchronous generation adequacy remains tight through the morning ramp.