Regional Outlook — SA1: Wednesday 26 August 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $228.97/MWh as at 6:30am AEST, tracking well above the past 24-hour average of roughly $155/MWh. Prices have been elevated since the overnight block between 3am and 5:30am, holding near a $227/MWh plateau, before easing modestly through the morning demand ramp before spiking again into the evening peak — a $246.85/MWh print at 6:25am was the session high. Demand currently sits at 1555 MW, up from an overnight low near 970 MW, consistent with the typical morning ramp.
Generation mix at the current interval is thermal-heavy: gas OCGT is contributing 598 MW and gas CCGT a further 472 MW, together supplying around 68% of the 1586 MW total generation snapshot. Wind is generating 460 MW, battery storage 56 MW, and solar is at zero given the pre-dawn period. This puts renewable penetration at 32.5%, in line with the latest carbon intensity reading of 0.391 tCO2/MWh — both metrics have improved from the sub-10% renewable, 0.53 tCO2/MWh trough recorded around 8am yesterday when gas plant dominated dispatch. Carbon intensity has swung widely over the past 24 hours, bottoming near 0.185 tCO2/MWh overnight when wind output peaked above 60% renewable share.
Predispatch forecasts point to a sharp overnight price collapse: forecast RRP falls from $198/MWh at 7am AEST target time down to single digits between 11am and 4pm AEST tonight (targets 26 Aug 21:00–27 Aug 02:00 UTC), with one interval forecast at just $0.01/MWh around 11am AEST. This aligns with AEMO's identified load-shifting windows between 12pm and 4pm AEST, offering savings up to $242/MWh versus peak pricing, though renewable contribution during those windows is forecast at 0%, meaning the low prices are demand-driven rather than renewables-driven. Prices are then forecast to climb back through the evening, reaching $190/MWh by 7pm AEST and peaking near $196/MWh around 10pm AEST tomorrow.
On notices, AEMO has flagged a Minimum System Load (MSL1) risk for the SA region on 30 August, with forecast demand potentially falling to as low as -62 MW between 11:30am and 3:30pm — a signal of high rooftop solar penetration suppressing operational demand and a factor traders should watch for negative pricing risk that day. No active market interventions or directions are currently in force for SA; the most recent SA-specific intervention (Barker Inlet PS voltage direction) was cancelled on 23 August. A negative settlement residue constraint on the VIC-SA interconnector (NRM_VIC1_SA1) ceased operating on 19 August and remains inactive.