Regional Outlook — SA1: Thursday 27 August 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $109.75/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, easing back after a volatile evening peak that saw prices spike to $220.78/MWh around 07:20-07:50 AEST last night on the back of demand climbing toward 1900 MW. Prices have since retraced through the $130-155/MWh band overnight before settling into current levels, tracking a 24-hour range that swung from a low of -$1.10/MWh in the pre-dawn trough (05:10 AEST, demand near 450 MW) to that evening peak above $220/MWh. Demand currently reads 1497 MW and climbing into the morning ramp.
Generation mix right now is running gas-heavy: GAS_OCGT contributes 378 MW and GAS_CCGT a further 302 MW, together supplying the bulk of dispatch. Wind is providing 178 MW, battery storage is discharging 71 MW, and solar output sits at 0 MW given the pre-dawn timing. Renewable penetration is at 24.94% per the latest carbon snapshot, well down from the 82-87% band achieved through the overnight trough (00:00-05:00 AEST) when wind carried the region and prices fell to single digits and briefly negative. Carbon intensity is currently 0.4063 tCO2/MWh, up from lows of 0.065-0.072 tCO2/MWh overnight — consistent with the shift from wind-dominated overnight supply to gas-dominated morning ramp.
Predispatch forecasts show prices holding near $138/MWh through to 08:00-08:30 AEST before a brief spike to $156.42/MWh at 08:30, then easing sharply into the $47-89/MWh band by 09:00-09:30 AEST as morning demand plateaus. Overnight tonight, forecasts point to a deep trough — sub-$15/MWh from 10:30 AEST through to 15:00 AEST, with several intervals near $10/MWh — before climbing back through the $90-130/MWh range during tomorrow's morning peak (17:00-20:00 AEST). Weather outlook shows solar potential improving into the weekend (20% by Saturday and Sunday) with light wind, supporting the low-price overnight window flagged in today's load-shifting opportunities.
On notices, AEMO has flagged a foreseeable intervention under NER clause 4.8.5A for voltage support in SA from 10:30 AEST today — a recurring theme this month, with directions issued to AGL's Barker Inlet and Torrens Island units on 22-23 August for the same reason. A prior intervention advisory for 27 August was cancelled at 16:10 yesterday. Separately, AEMO has cancelled a forecast Minimum System Load (MSL1) event for 31 August, though an MSL1 condition remains flagged for 30 August with minimum demand forecast near -62 MW around 14:00 AEST — a reminder of SA's continuing low-demand/high-renewable management challenge on light-load days. No active transmission constraints are reported for SA today.