Regional Outlook — SA1: Monday 24 August 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at -$1.00/MWh at 06:30 AEST, deep in negative territory as strong overnight wind generation continues to outpace demand of 1516 MW. This follows a volatile 24 hours that saw prices swing from a peak of $262/MWh around 08:50 AEST yesterday morning down through a sustained negative band from roughly 04:50-06:30 AEST this morning, with troughs near -$25.52/MWh. The current print sits well below yesterday's daytime average of $80-130/MWh, reflecting the classic SA pattern of gas and interconnector-driven peaks giving way to wind-driven negative pricing overnight.
Generation mix is heavily wind-dominated: wind is contributing 1620 MW against total demand of 1516 MW, with gas CCGT adding 43 MW, gas OCGT a negligible 0.1 MW, battery output minimal at 0.06 MW, and solar at zero given the pre-dawn hour. Renewable penetration sits at 97.4%, pushing carbon intensity down to just 0.0128 tCO2/MWh — near the lowest readings of the past 24 hours, alongside comparable troughs around 01:30-04:00 AEST. Intensity has ranged widely over the day, from these overnight lows up to 0.157 tCO2/MWh around 08:00-08:30 AEST yesterday when wind eased and gas/imports picked up the load.
Predispatch forecasts show prices climbing sharply through the morning peak: $83.53/MWh by 07:00, rising to $194.94/MWh at 08:30 and $193.31/MWh at 09:00 AEST, before easing back into the $70-90/MWh band through midday and settling into another negative stretch overnight tonight (forecasts show -$6/MWh between 12:30-17:00 AEST tomorrow, i.e. overnight tonight into early tomorrow). Wind potential today is forecast at a moderate 13.2%, with cloud cover at 43%, suggesting today's wind generation may ease slightly from current levels but should remain a dominant contributor.
On notices, AEMO has issued multiple market interventions in SA over the past week related to voltage control, including directions to AGL's Torrens Island and Barker Inlet units to synchronise and maintain grid security when synchronous generation was assessed as inadequate. These interventions (Market Notices 144905-144913) reflect the ongoing system strength challenge in SA as wind penetration rises — traders should note that further voltage-related directions remain plausible during periods of high renewable output and low synchronous generator commitment. No active notices currently flag transmission constraints specific to today's trading.