Regional Outlook — SA1: Saturday 22 August 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $113.07/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, sitting mid-range against a volatile 24-hour band that swung from a low near $0/MWh overnight to an $264/MWh peak around midday yesterday. Demand is currently 1,237 MW, well down from yesterday's afternoon peak above 1,680 MW. The overnight trough (00:00-05:00 AEST) held prices in single digits to low $100s as demand fell below 700 MW, before the morning ramp pushed prices through $150-260/MWh territory between 08:00 and 14:00 as demand climbed past 1,600 MW — a pattern consistent with reduced solar output and tightening reserve margins during the ramp window.
Generation mix at the current interval shows wind leading at 702 MW, followed by gas OCGT at 428 MW, gas CCGT at 43 MW, and batteries contributing 65 MW. Solar is at 0 MW, reflecting the pre-dawn timing of this snapshot. Renewable penetration sits at 61.96%, up sharply from the low of 14.18% recorded around 08:00 yesterday when gas-fired generation dominated the midday peak. Carbon intensity is 0.2418 tCO2/MWh, tracking inversely with wind output — intensity ranged from as low as 0.092 tCO2/MWh overnight (81% renewables) to a peak of 0.508 tCO2/MWh around 08:00 when renewable share bottomed out.
Predispatch forecasts show prices easing through the morning: $101/MWh at 07:00 AEST, dipping to $84/MWh by 08:00, then collapsing toward zero and into negative territory from 09:00 through 15:00 AEST as forecast demand and improving wind conditions take hold — troughs of -$6.02/MWh are flagged around 13:00 AEST. Prices are forecast to recover into the afternoon ramp, reaching $99/MWh by 19:00 and $101/MWh by 19:30 AEST as demand rebuilds. Weather data supports this trajectory: today's outlook shows modest solar potential (14.2%) and low wind potential (1.1%), with cooler temperatures (9-17°C) keeping heating demand present but manageable.
Two active AEMO market notices are relevant. A Direction was issued to a participant in the SA region on 22 August (effective from 16:05 AEST), commencing an AEMO intervention event for voltage support — intervention pricing does not apply. Separately, AEMO has flagged a foreseeable intervention circumstance for voltage from 10:30 AEST today, 23 August, with a further update noting insufficient market response by 16:00 AEST yesterday may necessitate a formal direction. Traders and grid engineers should watch for a follow-up direction notice around the 10:30 AEST window, which coincides with the forecast price trough — voltage support actions during low-price, high-renewable periods are consistent with reduced synchronous generation online in SA.