Regional Outlook — SA1: Friday 21 August 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $49.46/MWh as at 06:25 AEST, well down from the volatile overnight peak that saw prices spike to $375.79/MWh around 18:35 UTC (04:35 AEST) and $264.10/MWh shortly after. Demand currently reads 1,300 MW, a marked pullback from the 1,900 MW+ peak recorded earlier in the period. Over the past 24 hours prices have ranged from lows near $18-30/MWh overnight to those brief triple-digit spikes during the morning ramp, reflecting the tight supply-demand balance typical of SA's evening and morning transition periods.
The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is wind-led: wind is contributing 451.79 MW, the largest single source, followed by gas-fired generation at a combined 288.10 MW (158.28 MW OCGT, 129.82 MW CCGT), with batteries dispatching 154.11 MW and solar at 0 MW given the pre-dawn hour. Renewable penetration sits at 67.77%, and carbon intensity reads 0.1862 tCO2/MWh — both figures notably improved from the prior evening's 0.37-0.41 tCO2/MWh range when renewable share was down near 30-37%. This shift reflects the diurnal wind pattern strengthening overnight into the early morning.
Predispatch forecasts point to a sharp price escalation through the day. After easing to single digits around $6.54-$14.19/MWh between 09:30-14:00 AEST on continued strong wind output, prices are forecast to climb steadily from the 17:00 AEST period, reaching $130/MWh by 18:00 AEST, then surging through $215-$286/MWh across the 19:30-23:00 AEST window, peaking near $286.39/MWh around 23:00 AEST. This trajectory aligns with weak solar potential today (avg 8.6%, cloud cover 76%) and subdued wind potential (0.6), suggesting renewable output will taper materially into the evening demand peak, tightening the supply margin.
On notices, SA-specific items are limited to a resolved inter-regional transfer constraint on the Tailem Bend–South East No.2 275kV line from 20 August, now cleared. No active SA-region market interventions are currently in force, though traders should note last week's voltage-related direction to AGL's Torrens Island unit (18 August) as a reminder of SA's ongoing synchronous generation adequacy considerations during periods of high renewable penetration and low thermal unit commitment.