Regional Outlook — SA1: Tuesday 25 August 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $116.43/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with demand at 1,504 MW. This continues an overnight-to-morning climb from the negative and sub-$10/MWh troughs seen around midnight, through a firm $80-105/MWh band overnight, before evening peaks pushed as high as $208.87/MWh at 17:25 AEST and $197-198/MWh through the early evening period. The current price sits below yesterday evening's peak but well above the overnight floor, reflecting the region's typical volatility as wind output fluctuates.
Generation mix at the current interval is dominated by gas, with GAS_OCGT contributing 542 MW and GAS_CCGT a further 324 MW — together over 60% of the 1,182 MW generation total. Wind is producing 192 MW, batteries are dispatching 124 MW, and solar output is at zero given the overnight/pre-dawn timing. Renewable penetration sits at 26.76%, a sharp drop from the 97%+ renewable share recorded through the previous overnight period when wind was strong and demand low. Carbon intensity has risen accordingly to 0.4323 tCO2/MWh, up from lows near 0.011 tCO2/MWh at 02:00-05:00 AEST, tracking the swing from wind-dominated to gas-dominated generation as the morning demand ramp began.
Predispatch forecasts point to a volatile day ahead. Prices are expected to ease into the $30-85/MWh range through the early morning off-peak (05:30-06:30 AEST), before surging sharply from mid-morning: forecasts show $178.93/MWh by 08:00 AEST, climbing above $300/MWh between 08:30 and 12:30 AEST, with a forecast peak of $375/MWh at 12:30 AEST. Prices are then expected to ease into the afternoon, settling near $109-170/MWh through the evening. Today's weather outlook shows minimal wind potential (0.2) and moderate solar potential (8.1) under 72% cloud cover, consistent with the tight midday pricing forecast as renewable supply remains constrained.
No active market notices directly affect SA1 generation today. AEMO has flagged a Minimum System Load (MSL1) advisory for SA on 30 August, forecasting demand could fall as low as 4 MW by 14:00 AEST that day — a forward-looking system security note rather than a today issue. Recent SA-specific interventions (AGL Barker Inlet and Torrens Island directions for voltage control, issued 22-23 August) have been cancelled and are no longer in effect. Traders should note the load-shifting opportunities flagged for today: sub-$70/MWh windows exist at 02:00-03:00, 04:30-05:30, and 06:30-07:30 AEST, each offering material savings versus the forecast midday peak.