Regional Outlook — SA1: Friday 28 August 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $118.88/MWh as of 6:30am AEST, with demand at 1,262 MW. That's roughly in line with the region's overnight-to-morning trajectory, which has swung widely over the past 24 hours — from a low of $11.01/MWh around 9:30am yesterday afternoon (low-demand trough near 1,050 MW) to a peak of $156.13/MWh during the early evening ramp (around 7:50pm). The current price reflects the tail end of the evening demand peak, with prices holding in the $95-130/MWh band through the past three hours as demand eased off its earlier high near 1,720 MW.
Generation mix at the current interval shows wind leading at 338.77 MW, followed by gas OCGT at 276.5 MW, gas CCGT at 234.24 MW, and battery storage contributing 113.42 MW. Solar sits at 0 MW, consistent with the overnight/pre-dawn period. Renewable penetration is at 46.96%, and carbon intensity reads 0.3058 tCO2/MWh — both figures reflecting strong wind output offsetting the current absence of solar. Carbon intensity has ranged from as low as 0.13 tCO2/MWh overnight (when renewable penetration peaked above 73%) to as high as 0.4454 tCO2/MWh mid-morning when wind eased and gas plant filled the gap.
Predispatch forecasts point to falling prices through the day: $101.02/MWh by 5:30am, dropping into negative territory from 6:30am through the early afternoon, with troughs of -$6.47/MWh forecast around 12:30pm as rooftop and grid-scale solar ramp up under partly cloudy skies (24.7% average solar potential today, max temp 18.1°C). Prices are then forecast to recover sharply into the evening, reaching $101-128/MWh across the 6pm-8:30pm window as solar tapers and demand rebuilds. Wind potential remains negligible today (0.8%), meaning the midday price collapse is solar-driven rather than wind-driven.
On notices, AEMO cancelled a forecast Minimum System Load (MSL1) event for the SA region on 31 August, which had flagged demand potentially dropping below the 172 MW threshold near 1:30pm that day — a scenario tied to high rooftop solar offsetting operational demand. A separate MSL1 forecast for 30 August (minimum demand as low as -62 MW at 2pm) remains active in the notice history, underscoring the ongoing minimum demand management challenge in SA as solar penetration grows. No active market interventions or directions are currently in force for SA; the most recent SA-specific intervention (a voltage-related direction to Barker Inlet PS) was cancelled on 23 August.