Regional Outlook — QLD1: Tuesday 18 August 2026
Queensland spot price sits at $59.90/MWh as at 20:30 AEST, tracking below yesterday evening's peak of $85.15/MWh but well above the overnight trough that touched negative pricing (-$1.31/MWh around 05:15 AEST). Demand currently reads 6,744 MW, up from the overnight low near 4,700 MW, consistent with the typical evening ramp. Prices have been volatile through the day, swinging between $38-40/MWh in the low-demand afternoon shoulder and spiking above $80/MWh during the morning peak (07:00-09:00 AEST) as demand climbed past 7,800 MW.
The generation mix is currently dominated by black coal at 5,331 MW, followed by wind at 1,329 MW, battery storage contributing 254 MW, gas (OCGT) at 104 MW, hydro at 57 MW, and solar tapering to just 3 MW as the sun sets. Renewable penetration sits at 23.22%, down from a high of 53.4% recorded overnight when wind generation was stronger and demand was lower. Carbon intensity is currently 0.6723 tCO2/MWh, up from an overnight low of 0.4068 tCO2/MWh — the intraday swing reflects the inverse relationship between renewable output and demand-driven coal dispatch through the day.
Predispatch forecasts point to falling prices overnight, dropping to $21/MWh by 22:00 AEST and turning negative from 23:00 AEST through to around 05:00 AEST tomorrow, with troughs near -$7.25/MWh between 02:00-04:00 AEST — consistent with the load-shifting windows flagged for that period. Prices then rebound sharply from 06:30 AEST, climbing through the morning peak to a forecast high of $91.69/MWh around 10:00 AEST as demand builds, before easing back to the $55-60/MWh band by mid-afternoon and settling near $39.75/MWh into the evening.
On notices, QLD-specific items include a non-credible contingency event at Braemar No.1 275kV busbar (tripped 13:32 AEST 18 August, no load shedding instructed) and a prior transmission outage on the Palmwoods-South Pine 275kV line that has since returned to service. No active AEMO interventions are currently affecting QLD1 directly, though SA remains under an active intervention event for voltage control that traders should monitor for any flow-on interconnector effects via NSW1-QLD1 constraints.