Load Advisor: Tuesday 18 August 2026
NEM-wide overnight prices are deeply negative across most regions right now, and the window from 10:00 to 15:30 AEST offers the clearest load-shifting opportunity of the day before evening peaks return. SA1 is the standout, sitting at -$4.26/MWh currently and forecast to hold between -$8.00 and -$5.17/MWh from 11:00 through 16:00 AEST, before spiking sharply to $189.33/MWh at 20:00 AEST on the back of a solar-driven duck curve. NSW1 (-$6.30 to -$2.00/MWh through the same window) and QLD1 (-$7.25 to -$4.87/MWh) show similar patterns, while VIC1 stays mostly flat between -$6.60 and $0.01/MWh, with a brief negative dip around 12:00-13:00 AEST. TAS1 is the exception, tracking near $0/MWh overnight with no negative excursions, reflecting its hydro-dominated, less solar-sensitive supply.
Flexible load — EV charging, battery charging, industrial process loads, water heating — should be scheduled into the 10:00-15:30 AEST window today, with SA1 and QLD1 offering the deepest discounts (up to $197/MWh saving versus evening peak in SA1). NSW1 forecasts also show negative pricing extending from 11:00 through 15:00 AEST, making this a genuine NEM-wide low-price event rather than a single-region anomaly. Loads with strict overnight timing requirements can still shift into the 09:00-11:00 AEST band, where NSW1, QLD1 and VIC1 remain in the -$2 to -$8/MWh range, though SA1 prices lift earlier, crossing $80/MWh by 08:30 AEST.
Peak periods to avoid sit in two bands: the morning ramp from 07:00-10:00 AEST, where all mainland regions climb from sub-$0 to $80-190/MWh as rooftop solar hasn't yet offset morning demand, and the evening ramp from 16:30-19:00 AEST, where NSW1 holds $43-60/MWh, QLD1 $39-55/MWh, and SA1 peaks near $189/MWh at 10:00 AEST before a second lift toward 16:00-17:00 AEST. TAS1's flatter profile ($13-80/MWh across the day) reflects its more stable hydro-based supply and offers less pronounced arbitrage opportunity, but also carries lower downside risk for loads that can't be precisely timed.
Recommendation: schedule all shiftable NEM-wide load for the 10:00-15:00 AEST window today, prioritising SA1 and QLD1 assets first given the largest savings margins, with NSW1 close behind. Avoid dispatch in SA1 between 08:00-13:00 AEST peak pricing and across all mainland regions during the 16:30-19:00 AEST evening ramp. TAS1 flexible load can run largely on a flatter schedule given limited price differentiation through the day.