Load Advisor: Sunday 23 August 2026
NEM-wide overnight prices are near zero to negative across all mainland regions, with the deepest trough sitting between 10:00 and 14:00 AEST tonight into early tomorrow morning. NSW1, VIC1, SA1, QLD1 and TAS1 predispatch forecasts all show sub-$10/MWh pricing from roughly 10:00 to 14:00 AEST, with QLD1 and NSW1 dipping to -$2/MWh between 12:00 and 14:00 AEST as minimum demand conditions bite. Current trading prices sit well above this trough — NSW1 at $71.40/MWh, QLD1 at $67.85/MWh, SA1 at $50.57/MWh, VIC1 at $41.22/MWh and TAS1 at $49.15/MWh — confirming today's evening peak has already passed and the market is heading into its cheapest window of the day.
The best load-shifting opportunity NEM-wide is the 12:00-14:00 AEST block (in target-time terms, 02:00-04:00 UTC), where all five regions forecast prices at or below $10/MWh and several print negative. QLD1 offers the deepest and widest trough, holding between -$2 and $0/MWh across a two-hour span from 12:00 to 14:30 AEST, with saving_vs_peak exceeding $100/MWh on the advisory windows. NSW1 and SA1 show similarly attractive low-risk windows around 13:00-14:00 AEST at -$2/MWh and -$0.02/MWh respectively. VIC1's tightest window is narrower, centred on 13:30 AEST at -$0.02/MWh, while TAS1's best window (13:30 AEST, -$0.02/MWh) is shorter and flanked by higher-risk shoulder periods — treat TAS1 scheduling as more time-sensitive given thinner margins either side.
Prices will climb sharply from 16:00 AEST as the evening ramp begins: NSW1 forecasts jump from $24/MWh at 16:00 AEST to $90/MWh by 17:30 AEST, VIC1 rises from $25/MWh to $94/MWh over the same period, and SA1, QLD1 and TAS1 follow the same trajectory, peaking near $100-110/MWh between 18:00 and 19:30 AEST. This evening peak is the clear window to avoid for flexible load. A secondary but smaller peak sits between 06:30 and 08:30 AEST tomorrow as morning demand builds, with VIC1 and SA1 both forecast above $100/MWh by 08:30 AEST.
Recommendation: schedule flexible and shiftable load — batch industrial processes, EV charging, water heating, pumped storage charging — into the 12:00-14:00 AEST window today, prioritising QLD1 and NSW1 for the widest low-price margin. Avoid dispatch during 16:00-19:30 AEST this evening and again during 06:30-08:30 AEST tomorrow morning, both of which forecast prices 4-5 times higher than the midday trough. TAS1 flexible load should be scheduled tightly around the 13:00-14:00 AEST window given its narrower low-price band and higher-risk flags on adjacent periods.