Load Advisor: Thursday 20 August 2026
The overnight trough between roughly 01:00 and 06:00 AEST is the standout NEM-wide load shifting window today, with NSW1, VIC1 and QLD1 all pricing flexible load at $0-13/MWh across this period, and QLD1 briefly turning negative (-$5/MWh around 01:00-02:00 AEST). VIC1 shows the deepest and widest trough, holding near $8-13/MWh from 01:00 through to 04:30 AEST before a very brief spike-and-drop pattern around dawn. TAS1 sits a little higher but still cheap at $11/MWh between 02:30 and 04:00 AEST. SA1 is the outlier — it never drops below $87/MWh overnight due to tighter regional supply, so shifting load in SA today saves proportionally less in absolute terms, though $87-101/MWh is still well under its evening peak.
Prices will lift sharply through the morning ramp as heating demand persists (VIC1 and TAS1 currently show 9.7 and 12.2 tCO2-equivalent heating demand signals) and solar has not yet built. NSW1 forecast prices climb from single digits at 05:00 AEST to $75-95/MWh by 07:30-09:30 AEST, and QLD1 follows a similar pattern, reaching $85-93/MWh mid-morning. SA1's forecast is the most extreme, spiking to $255/MWh around 09:30 AEST and staying elevated ($120-190/MWh) through the late morning into early afternoon — this is the window to actively avoid for any SA1-based flexible load. VIC1's midday easing back toward $10-19/MWh between 12:30 and 14:30 AEST offers a secondary shifting opportunity, driven by rising rooftop solar, though today's heavy cloud cover (71% average) will dampen that effect somewhat.
A second attractive window emerges late afternoon into early evening for VIC1 and TAS1 specifically. VIC1 forecast prices turn negative (-$0.05/MWh) across 16:00 and again 17:00-18:00 AEST, and TAS1 drops to near-zero ($0.04-4.20/MWh) between 16:30 and 17:30 AEST. These late-day troughs are shorter and carry higher execution risk given the sharp ramp either side, so loads with fast response capability are best suited to capture them. NSW1 and QLD1 do not show equivalent evening troughs today — both regions sit at $55-58/MWh through late afternoon and into evening, comparatively expensive but still well under this morning's peak-period pricing.
The clearest cross-regional recommendation is to schedule all deferrable load — EV charging, batteries, industrial process loads, water heating — into the 01:00-05:00 AEST block, which captures the lowest prices with the lowest execution risk across NSW1, VIC1, QLD1 and TAS1 simultaneously. SA1 operators should prioritise the 01:30-05:30 AEST window at $87-119/MWh and avoid any load scheduling between 08:30 and 12:00 AEST, where forecast prices exceed $100/MWh and peak near $255/MWh. VIC1 and TAS1 sites with fast-acting flexible assets can layer in the late-afternoon near-zero window as a secondary opportunity, but should treat it as high-risk and keep primary load-shifting focused on the overnight trough.