Load Advisor: Friday 21 August 2026

**The overnight-to-dawn window (01:00–06:00 AEST) offers NEM-wide troughs below $30/MWh across all five mainland regions, with VIC1 and TAS1 dipping under $10/MWh — the clearest load-shifting opportunity of the day before every region rolls into a sharp midday-to-afternoon price spike.**

VIC1 shows the deepest trough, forecast at $2.68/MWh at 03:00 and holding below $10/MWh from 01:00 to 04:30, a saving of up to $277/MWh versus this evening's peak. SA1 and TAS1 track similarly low, sitting in the $4–$15/MWh band for the same overnight stretch. NSW1 and QLD1 are slightly firmer but still cheap, holding in the $23–$31/MWh range from 01:00 through 06:00. Current spot prices confirm the setup is already forming: VIC1 sits at $12.50/MWh and SA1 at $49.46/MWh into this evening, well down from QLD1's $89.73/MWh and NSW1's $90/MWh, with WA1 at $102.56/MWh reflecting a tighter evening peak in that separate market.

Flexible load should be avoided from around 07:00 through 15:30 AEST, when all four eastern mainland regions escalate sharply. NSW1 forecast prices climb past $130/MWh from 08:00 and spike to $292–$295/MWh between 12:00 and 13:00. VIC1 follows an almost identical path, peaking near $281/MWh at 13:00, while SA1 is the most extreme, holding above $250/MWh continuously from 11:00 through 15:00 and touching $286/MWh at 13:00. QLD1's peak is comparatively softer but still reaches $264/MWh at 12:00. TAS1 is the outlier, remaining flat and moderate all day at $30–$45/MWh with no sharp midday spike, reflecting its hydro-dominant supply stack and weaker linkage to the mainland's solar-driven midday price swings.

For today's advisory: schedule discretionary industrial and commercial load, EV charging, and battery charging for the 01:00–06:00 AEST window, prioritising VIC1 and SA1 where savings exceed $270/MWh versus peak. Where operations must run during business hours, shift what's possible to before 07:00 or defer to after 16:00 AEST, when NSW1, VIC1, QLD1, and SA1 prices ease back toward $85–$120/MWh. TAS1 sites have more flexibility throughout the day given its flatter profile, though the 02:00–04:00 window still delivers the best value. Batteries and demand response assets should target charging ahead of 06:00 and be positioned to discharge or curtail through the 11:00–15:00 peak, particularly in SA1 and NSW1 where the spread between trough and peak exceeds $260/MWh.