Load Advisor: Saturday 22 August 2026

Prices across the NEM sit at $95-129/MWh this morning (6:25am AEST), with WA1 the highest at $128.93/MWh and TAS1 the lowest at $94.98/MWh. Predispatch forecasts show a deep overnight trough developing from roughly 10am to 4pm AEST (00:00-06:00 UTC), when NSW1, VIC1, SA1 and QLD1 all fall to near-zero or negative pricing, before climbing sharply into the evening peak from 4:30pm AEST (06:30 UTC) onwards.

QLD1 offers the strongest and most sustained shifting opportunity today, holding negative prices (-$5 to -$7/MWh) continuously from 10am to 3:30pm AEST — a five-and-a-half hour window, materially longer than other regions. NSW1, VIC1 and SA1 also reach negative or near-zero prices between roughly 11am and 4pm AEST, with best single-hour value in NSW1 at $-5.64/MWh (11am-12pm AEST) and VIC1's extended 1.5-hour trough averaging $-5.01/MWh from 1pm-2:30pm AEST. TAS1's window is comparatively shallow and short, with prices only briefly touching zero around 2:30-4:30pm AEST before a jump to $41/MWh, so flexible load there should be scheduled tightly within the 3:30-4:30pm AEST slot.

All regions should avoid scheduling flexible load in the late afternoon and evening ramp. Forecasts show NSW1 climbing from $41/MWh at 4:30pm AEST to $95-98/MWh by 7:30-8pm AEST, VIC1 and SA1 reaching $94-101/MWh in the same window, and QLD1 peaking near $88/MWh by 6-7pm AEST. This evening peak is driven by the loss of solar generation (all regions show zero solar potential overnight, with cloud cover 27-100% today limiting daytime solar contribution) combined with rising heating demand as temperatures drop to 7-11°C overnight.

Recommendation: shift all deferrable NEM-wide load into the 11am-4pm AEST window today, prioritising QLD1 for the longest low-price runway and NSW1/VIC1 for the deepest negative pricing. Avoid scheduling in TAS1 outside 3:30-4:30pm AEST given its shorter trough, and ensure all flexible load is cleared before 4:30pm AEST NEM-wide to avoid the evening price ramp that peaks between 7pm and 9pm AEST across all mainland regions.