Commodity Demand — VIC1: Tuesday 18 August 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $10.65/MWh at 06:25 AEST with demand at 5,536 MW, tracking the tail end of the overnight demand trough. Demand bottomed near 4,100-4,300 MW between 01:00-03:30 AEST, coinciding with a stretch of negative pricing (-$5 to -$8/MWh) as wind generation (currently 3,590 MW, over 60% of the mix) outpaced overnight load. Prices have since lifted off the floor as demand climbs through the morning ramp, but the current $10.65/MWh print shows the market still well supplied relative to demand.
The demand-price relationship through the day has been sharp. Yesterday's evening peak saw demand climb from 6,400 MW to 7,384 MW between 20:00-21:35 AEST, dragging prices from $27.85/MWh to a peak of $57.56/MWh — roughly a 15% demand increase driving a doubling in price. Today's overnight trough repeated the inverse pattern: as demand fell below 4,500 MW, prices turned negative for extended periods, reflecting minimal thermal generation flexibility and strong wind output with nowhere to go. Brown coal is running at 3,400 MW, providing a stable baseload floor that limits how far negative prices need to go to clear the market.
The forecast trajectory today is the key signal for traders: AEMO's price forecasts show a sharp escalation from $10.50-24.97/MWh through the early morning (06:00-07:00 AEST window) to $75-89/MWh across 08:00-11:30 AEST, peaking near $89.04/MWh around 11:00 AEST target time. This coincides with forecast demand ramping through the morning as commercial and industrial load builds, combined with a weather outlook showing weak solar potential (avg 1.9% today) under 77% cloud cover — reducing rooftop PV offset to grid demand during the day. Prices are forecast to retreat back to the $10-19/MWh band from 13:00 AEST onward as afternoon demand eases, consistent with today's cool, overcast conditions (max 15.2°C) keeping both heating and cooling load modest.
No VIC-specific demand-side interventions are in the notices; the active directions concern SA voltage support (Torrens Island synchronisation) and a Basslink transfer limitation from 07:00 AEST yesterday, which reduces Tasmania-Victoria interconnector flexibility but has not yet shown material price impact in VIC. Carbon intensity has eased to 0.581 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 52.4%, though this will likely rise through the low-solar, high-demand morning period as thermal generation ramps to cover the forecast price spike.