Commodity Demand — TAS1: Tuesday 18 August 2026
Tasmania spot price sits at $20.28/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 1,153 MW and climbing through the morning ramp. This follows an extended negative-to-near-zero pricing overnight, where demand troughed at approximately 817 MW around 02:00-02:30 AEST and prices fell as low as -$8.40/MWh — a textbook low-demand, high-renewable overnight pattern with wind and hydro comfortably covering the load.
The overnight-to-morning transition shows Tasmania's tight demand-price coupling: as load rose from the ~950 MW trough after 05:00 AEST toward 1,150+ MW by 06:30, prices moved from near-zero into the $20-45/MWh band, then spiked to $53.63/MWh at 07:00 AEST as demand pushed toward 1,104 MW. This region shows high price sensitivity per MW of demand change relative to mainland regions, reflecting Tasmania's smaller market depth — a 100-150 MW swing in load is enough to move prices by $30-50/MWh when the generation stack has to bring on marginal gas OCGT capacity above hydro and wind availability.
AEMO's forecast trajectory points to a much sharper price escalation ahead today. Forecast RRP climbs to $54.12/MWh by 07:30 AEST, $67.88/MWh at 08:00 AEST, and peaks near $80.31/MWh at 11:00 AEST before easing back through the afternoon to the $13-20/MWh range by early evening. This midday peak aligns with typical Tasmanian demand patterns where load likely tracks toward the 1,250-1,300 MW range seen in yesterday's equivalent period, requiring GAS_OCGT dispatch beyond the current 122.88 MW alongside hydro (382.3 MW) and wind (341.81 MW) to meet the load. Traders should note the current carbon intensity of 0.0943 tCO2/MWh and 85.49% renewable share will likely dip further as gas peaking capacity ramps to cover the 09:00-12:00 AEST demand peak.
On the demand-side, no Tasmania-specific market notices are in effect today — the active AEMO interventions relate to SA region voltage support and Basslink technical limitations noted on 18 August, which could marginally affect Tasmania's ability to export or import via the interconnector during today's price peak. Weather offers little relief on the demand front: today's forecast max of 17.8°C with low solar potential (avg 3.5) and modest wind potential (avg 3.0) suggests limited rooftop solar offset and continued reliance on scheduled hydro and wind generation through the midday peak, reinforcing the AEMO forecast for sustained elevated pricing into early afternoon.