Load Advisor: Monday 17 August 2026
Overnight-into-early-morning is the standout load-shifting window nationwide, with NSW1, VIC1, SA1 and QLD1 all forecasting negative pricing between roughly 01:00 and 06:00 AEST. QLD1 offers the deepest discounts of the mainland regions, with predispatch prices sitting at -$5.26/MWh around 14:00 AEST (04:00 UTC) and savings of up to $89/MWh versus this morning's evening peak of $64.93/MWh. NSW1 shows a similar profile, bottoming near -$5.43/MWh in the 14:00-15:00 AEST window (a $92/MWh saving), while VIC1 and SA1 trade in a tighter but still favourable -$6 to -$8/MWh band across several half-hour periods between 11:00 and 18:00 UTC (roughly 21:00-04:00 AEST overnight and again into the early hours). TAS1's discounts are shallower, troughing around -$6.87/MWh, reflecting its smaller demand base and hydro-dominated supply stack.
Prices will lift sharply from around 06:30 UTC (16:30 AEST) as the evening ramp begins. NSW1 predispatch shows prices climbing from near-zero to $70-88/MWh through the 17:00-20:00 AEST band, peaking near $87/MWh around 20:00 AEST. QLD1 follows a similar trajectory, forecast to hit $83.69/MWh around 20:00 AEST, while SA1 and VIC1 show more moderate afternoon peaks in the $30-38/MWh range before both regions swing back into negative territory during the 22:00 UTC to 04:00 UTC period (roughly 08:00 to 14:00 AEST tomorrow) as rooftop and utility solar ramps. Flexible load scheduled into the evening peak (17:00-21:00 AEST) will pay a premium of $60-90/MWh above the low-price windows across NSW1 and QLD1 specifically.
VIC1 and SA1 present the most persistent low-price opportunity today, with negative pricing forecast to extend through the middle of the day (10:00-18:00 UTC, i.e. 20:00-04:00 AEST plus a midday trough near 12:00-14:00 UTC) as wind and rooftop solar output builds — SA1 wind potential is elevated (9.3 currently, forecast average 7.4-11.8 over coming days), reinforcing sustained low prices through the region. This aligns with a broader pattern of negative or near-zero pricing whenever solar generation peaks, before both regions return to positive territory ahead of the evening ramp.
Recommendation: schedule flexible and shiftable load — EV charging, batch industrial processes, water heating, battery charging — into the 01:00-06:00 AEST overnight window across NSW1, SA1 and TAS1, and extend flexible operations through the 08:00-16:00 AEST midday trough in VIC1 and SA1 where solar and wind suppress prices for longer. QLD1 operators should prioritise the 13:30-15:30 AEST window for the deepest discounts. All regions should avoid discretionary load between 17:00 and 21:00 AEST, when NSW1 and QLD1 prices are forecast to reach $75-88/MWh, roughly 15-20 times higher than the overnight trough.