Commodity Demand — VIC1: Monday 17 August 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $35.94/MWh at 06:25 AEST, with demand at 6,207 MW and climbing as the morning ramp gets underway. The price-demand relationship over the past 24 hours has been tight and consistent: overnight demand troughed near 4,280 MW between 03:00-04:00 AEST, coinciding with prices falling into negative territory (-$8.50/MWh at 03:20-03:30) as wind generation (currently 2,992 MW) covered the bulk of the low-demand load. As demand climbed through the morning peak yesterday, prices tracked closely — demand of 7,570 MW at 08:30 AEST corresponded with prices around $88-90/MWh, confirming Victoria's price curve is highly demand-elastic in the 6,500-7,600 MW band.
Today's demand trajectory should mirror yesterday's pattern given similar temperature settings — current conditions show 7.8°C with heating demand at 10.2 (elevated), pointing to a solid morning ramp as households and businesses draw heating load. Based on yesterday's equivalent profile, expect demand to climb from the current 6,207 MW toward a morning peak near 7,400-7,600 MW around 08:00-09:00 AEST, with prices likely testing the $80-90/MWh range during that window if brown coal and wind output hold near current levels (4,265 MW and 2,992 MW respectively). AEMO's forward price curve points to a similar evening peak build, with forecast RRP at $56.78/MWh by 21:00 AEST tonight before collapsing through the overnight trough — forecasts show negative pricing from 01:00 AEST tomorrow through to at least 05:00 AEST, consistent with the low-demand, high-wind overnight pattern seen today.
Demand-side flexibility signals are clear in the data: five load-shifting windows are identified for today and overnight, all in negative-price territory (-$5.44 to -$7.73/MWh), offering up to $64.51/MWh in savings versus peak pricing. The best windows sit at 01:00-02:00, 02:00-03:00, 03:30-04:30, and 05:00-06:00 AEST, plus a notable afternoon window at 16:00-17:00 AEST tomorrow — all low-risk, zero-carbon-intensity periods driven by wind output exceeding underlying demand. No new market notices affect Victorian supply directly; the active items are interconnector and non-conformance notices in NSW/QLD with no material bearing on VIC1 pricing today.