Commodity Demand — TAS1: Monday 17 August 2026

Tasmania's spot price sits at $36.16/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 1119 MW and climbing as the region moves through the morning ramp. The overnight trough saw demand fall as low as 940-960 MW between 12:00-16:00 AEST (overnight), with prices collapsing into negative territory (-$9.02/MWh at 13:20 AEST equivalent) as hydro output comfortably exceeded low demand. That trough-to-peak swing is the key story: demand has risen roughly 180 MW off the overnight low in the past two hours alone, dragging price up from single digits to the mid-$30s.

Tasmania's price-demand relationship is steep and non-linear once demand pushes past 1200 MW. Yesterday's evening peak illustrates this clearly — demand climbed from 1119 MW to a high of 1398 MW between 20:30 and 21:45 AEST, and price responded by lifting from $36/MWh to a peak of $89.26/MWh around 06:30 AEST equivalent, with a sustained band of $70-85/MWh through the 07:00-11:00 AEST window as demand held above 1200 MW. Below roughly 1100 MW, price sits in the $25-55/MWh range; above 1250 MW, price consistently breaks above $70/MWh. Hydro is currently supplying 936 MW against 222 MW wind and 124 MW gas OCGT, so the region is leaning on gas peaking capacity once hydro and wind are fully committed during ramp periods, which is what's driving the price step-change.

AEMO's forecast trajectory points to a demand-driven price profile through today: forecast RRP stays elevated near $51-52/MWh into the early evening peak (through 07:00-08:00 AEST target intervals), before falling sharply overnight as demand eases — forecast prices in the $10-11/MWh band dominate from late morning through afternoon trading, with a brief negative dip forecast around 11:00-12:00 AEST target time (-$6.89/MWh). Renewable penetration currently sits at 90.3% with carbon intensity of 0.0631 tCO2/MWh, reflecting strong hydro and wind coverage outside peak demand windows. No demand-side constraints or non-conformance notices are active for TAS1 today; the only relevant NEM notices concern interconnector and transfer limit variations in QLD, NSW and SA, none of which affect Tasmanian dispatch. Traders should watch the 07:00-11:00 AEST window for renewed price strain if demand tracks yesterday's peak above 1250 MW.