Regional Outlook — QLD1: Sunday 16 August 2026
Queensland's spot price sits at $54.75/MWh at 06:25 AEST, with demand at 6,549 MW. The region has swung sharply over the past 24 hours — from negative pricing overnight (down to -$5.00/MWh between 07:35 and 10:45 AEST as demand troughed near 3,870 MW) to a sharp morning peak of $86.37/MWh at 16:30 AEST as demand climbed past 7,300 MW. Current pricing sits mid-range, easing back from that morning peak but still elevated versus the overnight trough.
Generation mix at the latest interval shows black coal dominant at 4,842 MW, followed by wind at 1,627 MW, battery storage contributing 363 MW, gas (OCGT) at 96 MW, hydro at 67 MW, and solar negligible at 0.8 MW given the evening timing. Total renewable penetration sits at 29.4%, up from a low of 22.2% around 03:25 AEST but well below the overnight peak of 49.9% reached at 11:55 AEST when wind output was strongest and demand was low. Carbon intensity currently reads 0.618 tCO2/MWh, tracking the inverse of renewable share — it peaked near 0.68 tCO2/MWh during the low-wind, high-coal afternoon period and bottomed around 0.44 tCO2/MWh overnight.
Predispatch forecasts point to prices easing into negative territory overnight, with troughs of -$6.54/MWh forecast around 12:00-14:00 AEST and 04:00 AEST tomorrow, reflecting expected demand troughs and continued wind contribution. Prices are then forecast to climb sharply from 16:00 AEST tomorrow, reaching $78.54/MWh by 18:00 AEST and holding near $79-80/MWh through the 19:00-20:30 AEST window as morning demand ramps — consistent with today's pattern. Load-shifting windows show strongest value between 01:00-05:00 AEST tomorrow, with average prices near -$5 to -$7/MWh, saving up to $86/MWh versus peak.
No active market notices are specific to QLD today beyond a resolved non-conformance event for WOOLGSF1 (143 MW) on 13 August and a prior credible contingency reclassification affecting the Nebo SVC and transformer, still in effect since 6 August. Inter-regional transfer constraints affecting NSW1-QLD1 flows remain active from the Lismore 132kV line outage (15 August) and the earlier Tarong 275kV circuit breaker event, both of which may continue to influence interconnector-driven price volatility.