Load Advisor: Sunday 16 August 2026
NEM-wide overnight-to-dawn prices are collapsing across all five mainland regions, with QLD1 forecast to trade negative (-$6.5/MWh) between 02:00-05:00 AEST, VIC1 and SA1 both dropping to $9.70-$10.65/MWh from 00:30 through 06:30 AEST, and NSW1/TAS1 holding in the $30-45/MWh range over the same window. Current spot prices sit well above these levels — NSW1 at $57.92/MWh, QLD1 at $54.75/MWh, VIC1 at $54.70/MWh — confirming the overnight trough is a genuine step-change, not noise. This is the clearest load-shifting window of the day: flexible load scheduled between 00:00-06:00 AEST across NSW1, VIC1, SA1, QLD1 and TAS1 will capture $70-86/MWh in savings versus this morning's peak pricing.
The morning peak to avoid runs 07:00-11:00 AEST nationwide. Forecasts show VIC1 and SA1 both spiking to $84-88/MWh by 08:30-09:00 AEST, NSW1 and QLD1 reaching $85-87/MWh in the same window, and TAS1 peaking near $82/MWh at 08:30 AEST. This coincides with low solar potential across NSW1 (10.6%) and VIC1 (16.1%) this morning under cloud cover of 58-100%, limiting renewable offset during the ramp. A secondary, shorter peak appears late morning into midday (10:00-12:00 AEST) before prices ease through early afternoon.
A second, materially strong shifting window opens mid-afternoon in SA1, VIC1 and TAS1. SA1 prices fall back to ~$10.50/MWh from 14:30-18:00 AEST, VIC1 mirrors this from 14:30 AEST through at least 18:00 AEST, and TAS1 drops to ~$10.70/MWh from 14:30 AEST onward — all driven by rising rooftop and grid-scale solar output as cloud cover clears (SA1 daily outlook shows improving solar through the week). NSW1 and QLD1 remain comparatively firm in the $38-43/MWh band during this afternoon period, so cross-regional arbitrage favours shifting SA1/VIC1/TAS1 load to the afternoon trough rather than NSW1/QLD1 load.
Recommendation: schedule all deferrable load — EV charging, batch industrial processes, water pumping, HVAC pre-cooling/pre-heating — into the 00:00-06:00 AEST window nationally, prioritising QLD1 given negative pricing saves $85+/MWh versus peak. Where operations can't shift to overnight, target the 14:30-18:00 AEST window in SA1, VIC1 and TAS1 as a secondary option. Avoid committing flexible load to the 07:00-11:00 AEST ramp in any region; this is the highest-cost, highest-risk period today across the NEM.