Commodity Demand — VIC1: Sunday 16 August 2026
Victoria demand sits at 6,328 MW at 06:25 AEST, up sharply from the overnight trough of roughly 3,420 MW recorded around 03:30-04:15 AEST, with spot price at $54.70/MWh. The overnight period saw prices repeatedly turn negative — down to -$38.32/MWh at 04:50 AEST — as demand fell below 3,500 MW against a generation stack still running 4,600 MW of brown coal baseload plus wind. That mismatch between inflexible thermal output and low demand is the direct driver of the negative pricing window between 02:00 and 05:00 AEST.
The morning ramp is the key price event so far today. Demand climbed from 4,492 MW at 05:55 AEST to over 7,000 MW by 08:30 AEST, and price responded aggressively — jumping from $10.50/MWh to a peak of $90.55/MWh at 07:25 AEST as the system absorbed roughly 2,500 MW of load growth in under two hours. Price sensitivity is elevated through this window: each ~100 MW step in demand growth is tracking with $5-10/MWh price moves, indicating the market is dispatching progressively higher-cost plant to meet the ramp. Demand has since eased back from the ~7,090 MW mid-morning peak to 6,328 MW, with price cooling from the mid-$80s to mid-$50s in step.
AEMO's forecast trajectory points to a second, sharper price event this evening. Forecast RRP climbs from $64.22/MWh at 21:00 AEST to $74.50/MWh at 22:00 AEST, consistent with the typical evening demand peak as solar output (currently zero, with cloud cover at 100%) drops away and heating load picks up — today's minimum temperature of 6.9°C and heating demand index of 11.1 point to sustained residential load into the evening. Overnight, forecast prices collapse again to $10.50-30.16/MWh from 23:00 AEST through to 06:00 AEST tomorrow, mirroring today's pattern, before a much sharper forecast ramp tomorrow morning where price is expected to hit $88.04/MWh by 08:30 AEST — a slightly higher peak than today's, suggesting marginally tighter supply-demand balance forecast for Tuesday's morning ramp.
No demand-side constraints or reliability notices are currently active for Victoria. The relevant market notices reference interconnector control issues on Murraylink and Directlink (NSW/SA boundaries) and a prior VIC1 non-conformance event on battery unit PLBESS1 (7 MW, 13 August) — neither materially affects today's Victoria demand-price relationship. Optimal load-shifting windows remain concentrated between 00:30 and 06:00 AEST tomorrow, where forecast pricing sits near $10.50-13/MWh, offering roughly $75-78/MWh in savings versus today's peak pricing.