Commodity Demand — TAS1: Sunday 16 August 2026

Tasmania demand sits at 1,275 MW as of 06:25 AEST, up sharply from an overnight trough of 878 MW around 13:00-14:00 AEST, and spot price has tracked this ramp closely at $53.30/MWh, up from single digits during the low-demand window. The region is currently in its morning demand ramp, with load climbing roughly 400 MW over the past three hours as the 4.1°C morning temperature drives heating demand (currently 13.9 MW-equivalent index). Price sensitivity to demand is pronounced today: every 100-150 MW of load growth has moved RRP by $15-25/MWh, evident in the overnight collapse to negative pricing (-$9.96/MWh) when demand bottomed near 880-900 MW, followed by rapid escalation into the $70-90/MWh band as demand pushed past 1,200 MW into the 07:00-08:30 AEST window.

AEMO's forecast trajectory points to a firmer peak ahead. Forecast RRP climbs to $80.88/MWh by 08:00 AEST and peaks at $82.38/MWh around 08:30 AEST, consistent with the current demand ramp continuing toward the 1,300 MW mark seen briefly overnight. This morning peak is the most price-sensitive window of the day — hydro generation at 1,036 MW is carrying the bulk of load, supplemented by 199.8 MW of gas OCGT and 68.3 MW of wind, and the reliance on OCGT dispatch during the ramp is consistent with the sharper price response versus the trough periods when hydro alone comfortably covered demand below 900 MW.

Beyond the morning peak, AEMO's forecast shows prices easing back to $50-70/MWh through the middle of the day as demand moderates, before a second material decline into the afternoon and overnight period, with forecast RRP dropping to $10-40/MWh from 13:00 AEST onward and troughing near $10.60-10.90/MWh overnight into 17:00-18:00 AEST tomorrow. This mirrors today's pattern where demand fell to sub-900 MW troughs and price fell to zero or negative. No demand-side constraints, non-conformance notices, or load-shedding directions are currently active for TAS1 — the only historical regional notices relate to lightning-driven contingency reclassifications on the Palmerston-Hadspen and Norwood-Scottsdale lines, both since cancelled. Current carbon intensity is 0.0996 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 84.7%, reflecting hydro's dominant share through this demand cycle.